Chongqing Water GroupLtd (SHSE:601158) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Chongqing Water GroupLtd (SHSE:601158) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:601158) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
傳奇基金經理李錄(得到查理芒格的支持)曾說:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動性,而是您是否會承受永久性的資本損失。」當您審查風險時,考慮一家公司的資產負債表是非常自然的,因爲債務常常涉及企業倒閉。正如許多其他公司一樣,重慶水務股份有限公司(SHSE:601158)利用債務。但這種債務是否會讓股東擔憂?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無法償還債務,則存在受到債權人支配的風險。如果情況嚴重,債權人可以接管企業。然而,更常見的(但仍然痛苦)情況是它以低價籌集新的股本資本,從而永久性地稀釋股東。通過替換稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本投資高回報增長的企業極好的工具。在考慮公司的債務水平時,第一步是考慮其現金和債務。
How Much Debt Does Chongqing Water GroupLtd Carry?
重慶水務股份有限公司的債務有多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Chongqing Water GroupLtd had CN¥9.90b of debt, an increase on CN¥7.86b, over one year. However, it also had CN¥2.38b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥7.52b.
您可以單擊下面的圖表查看歷史數字,但它顯示截至2024年3月,重慶水務股份有限公司負有99億元的債務,比去年同期的78.6億元增加。然而,它也有23.8億元的現金,因此其淨債務爲75.2億元。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240727/0-a2c53787ceb965e689d1e925378cba8f-0-48daee245c321d05662ab94bff57e2dd.png/big)
A Look At Chongqing Water GroupLtd's Liabilities
重慶水務股份有限公司的負債情況
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Chongqing Water GroupLtd had liabilities of CN¥6.45b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥10.1b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥2.38b as well as receivables valued at CN¥2.26b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥12.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
我們可以從最近的資產負債表看到,重慶水務股份有限公司有64.5億元的應付短期負債和101億元的長期負債。它有23.8億元的現金,以及12個月內應收賬款價值22.6億元,以抵消這些負債。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的組合多了120億元。
Chongqing Water GroupLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥23.9b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
重慶水務股份有限公司的市值爲239億元,因此如果需要,它完全可以籌集資金來改善其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們絕對應該密切檢查它是否可以在不稀釋股票的情況下管理其債務。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了對公司的債務相對於其收益進行規模適應,我們計算其淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)之比及其稅前收益(EBIT)與利息支出之比(利息保障倍數)。因此,我們既考慮到不包括折舊和攤銷費用在內的收益,又包括折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對於債務。
Chongqing Water GroupLtd's net debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 1k times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. Shareholders should be aware that Chongqing Water GroupLtd's EBIT was down 55% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Chongqing Water GroupLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
重慶水務股份有限公司的淨負債是其EBITDA的2.8倍,這是相當可觀但仍合理的槓桿負債。但其EBIt大約是其利息支出的0.1萬倍,這意味着公司並沒有真正爲維持這種程度的債務支付高額成本。即使低成本無法持續,這也是一個好的跡象。股東應該注意重慶水務股份有限公司的EBIt去年下降了55%。如果這種盈利趨勢繼續下去,償還債務將如同把貓趕上過山車一樣困難。從資產負債表上,我們無疑學到了有關債務的大部分內容。但最終是未來的收入,而不是其他什麼,將決定重慶水務股份有限公司未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您關心未來,可以查看這份免費報告,其中顯示了分析師的盈利預測。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Chongqing Water GroupLtd burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
但是最終的考慮也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙上利潤支付債務;它需要冰冷的現金流。因此,我們需要清楚地了解EBIt是否導致了相應的自由現金流。在過去的三年中,重慶水務集團有限公司燒掉了很多現金。雖然這可能是因爲爲了增長而支出,但它確實使債務風險更高。
Our View
我們的觀點
On the face of it, Chongqing Water GroupLtd's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. It's also worth noting that Chongqing Water GroupLtd is in the Water Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Chongqing Water GroupLtd's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Chongqing Water GroupLtd (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
乍一看,重慶水務集團有限公司將EBIt轉換爲自由現金流的情況讓我們對該股持保留態度,其EBIt增長率也沒有引人入勝的地方。但從好的方面來看,它的利息覆蓋率是一個好兆頭,這使我們更加樂觀。此外,值得注意的是,重慶水務集團有限公司位於公用股行業,這通常被認爲是相當防禦性的。從更大的圖片來看,我們認爲重慶水務集團有限公司使用債務正在爲公司帶來風險。如果一切順利,這可能會有所回報,但這種債務的下行風險是永久性損失的風險更大。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯然的起點。然而,並不是所有的投資風險都存於資產負債表之中。爲此,您應該了解我們發現的有關重慶水務集團有限公司的3個警示信號(其中1個不太符合我們的心意)。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
歸根結底,專注於沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。您可以訪問我們的特別列表,其中包括所有表現出盈利增長軌跡的公司。這是免費的。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。