It's been a good week for Lennox International Inc. (NYSE:LII) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.1% to US$573. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.5b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Lennox International surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$6.87 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Lennox International's 15 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$5.11b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 12% to US$20.31. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.13b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$19.99 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$547, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lennox International at US$675 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$380. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Lennox International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.5% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Lennox International.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Lennox International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Lennox International has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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