Lazard, Inc. (NYSE:LAZ) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 7.2% to hit US$685m. Lazard also reported a statutory profit of US$0.49, which was an impressive 164% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lazard's seven analysts is for revenues of US$2.90b in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 4.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 26% to US$2.12. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.20 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 7.9% to US$50.71, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lazard at US$56.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$42.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Lazard is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Lazard's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.4% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Lazard is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Lazard going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Lazard you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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