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Top 'Trump Trade' Isn't The Dollar But Gold As Survey Participants Foresee 'Severe Disruptions To Markets And Trade'

Top 'Trump Trade' Isn't The Dollar But Gold As Survey Participants Foresee 'Severe Disruptions To Markets And Trade'

“特朗普交易”的首選品不是美元,而是黃金,因爲調查參與者預見到“嚴重的市場和貿易崩潰”
Benzinga ·  22:42

Gold has emerged as the top choice for investors looking to hedge their portfolios in the event of a potential second term for Donald Trump.

黃金已成爲投資者在特朗普概念可能實現第二任期時用於對沖投資組合的首選。

What Happened: The precious metal has been identified as the best hedge against a possible Trump presidency, according to a Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey. The survey, conducted from Jul. 22 to Jul. 26, included 480 respondents.

珍貴金屬在彭博市場實時脈動的調查中被認爲是對抗特朗普政府最佳的對沖工具。調查由7月22日至7月26日進行,共有480名受訪者。

Over 60% of the participants believe that the U.S. dollar would weaken if Trump secures another term. This view is supported by the historical performance of the dollar, which slid over 10% while the price of gold surged over 50% during Trump's previous tenure.

超過60%的受訪者認爲,特朗普再次當選會導致美元貶值。這個觀點得到了美元的歷史表現的支持,在特朗普的上一任期間,美元下跌了超過10%,而黃金價格則上漲了超過50%。

Trump's proposed policies, such as tax cuts, tariffs, and reduced regulations, are seen as inflationary by Wall Street and could potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. A Republican victory in the November elections, granting Trump more leeway to implement his economic policies, could further drive up gold prices.

華爾街認爲,特朗普提出的政策,如減稅、關稅和減少監管,是具有通貨膨脹風險的,這可能促使聯儲局加息。共和黨在11月的選舉中獲勝,給特朗普實施其經濟政策更大的自由度,也可能進一步推高黃金價格。

JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Gregory Shearer noted that geopolitical tensions, the growing U.S. deficit, and inflation hedging have driven gold prices higher. These factors could be magnified under a Trump presidency or a Republican-controlled Congress.

根據摩根大通分析師格雷戈裏‧謝爾(Gregory Shearer)指出,地緣政治緊張局勢、不斷增長的美國赤字和抵禦通脹壓力推高了黃金價格。這些因素在特朗普政府或共和黨控制的國會下可能會被放大。

Survey respondents echoed this sentiment, with one stating, "All I can see are severe disruptions to markets and trade, and rapid increases" in the U.S. national debt.

調查受訪者也表達了這種觀點,其中一位表示:“我所能看到的只是市場和貿易的嚴重干擾以及美國國債的迅速增加。”

"When the US is creating its own risk premium due to a potentially disorderly election, the fiscal implications of a Trump presidency, that makes the dollar in 2025 a risk," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

XTb研究總監凱瑟琳·布魯克斯(Kathleen Brooks)表示:“當美國由於潛在的混亂選舉而創造其自己的風險溢價時,特朗普當選的財政影響會使2025年美元成爲一種風險。”

Why It Matters: The 2024 presidential race has been thrown into uncertainty following President Joe Biden's decision to step down, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. This has led to speculation about the future of the "Trump trade," a term referring to market strategies that would benefit from a potential Trump return to the White House.

爲何重要:2024年總統競選因喬·拜登總統決定卸任,贊成副總統賀錦麗而被帶入了不確定性。這導致了人們對“特朗普交易”的未來的猜測,這個術語是指市場策略,這些策略將從特朗普重返白宮中受益。

Former President Trump has criticized the current economic state under Biden, blaming the administration for inflation issues and claiming that the stock market is only enriching the wealthy.

前總統特朗普批評了拜登政府下的經濟狀況,責怪政府的通脹問題,並聲稱股市只讓富人更富。

With the upcoming election, defense stocks are also seeing significant attention, as investors weigh the potential impacts of a Harris or Trump presidency on various sectors.

隨着即將到來的選舉,國防股也受到了重視,投資者正在權衡賀錦麗或特朗普政府對各個行業的潛在影響。

Price Action: Gold Spot prices rose by 0.23% to $2,392.61, reflecting an increase of $5.54. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a slight decline on Friday's market close, dropping 0.11% to $104.20, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

黃金現貨價格上漲0.23%,至2392.61美元,漲5.54美元。與此同時,美元指數在星期五收盤時略有下跌,下跌了0.11%,至104.20美元,根據Benzinga Pro的數據。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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