According to Tianfeng Securities' research report, it is expected that Alibaba's (09988) revenue in FY25Q1 will be 248.8 billion yuan, with a YoY increase of 6.2%; it is expected that the company's adjusted EBITA will be 40.5 billion yuan, with a YoY decrease of 10.8%, and EBITAMargin will be 16.3%; it is expected that the Non-GAAP net income will be 42.1 billion yuan, with a YoY decrease of 6%.
The bank pointed out that for Taotian Group, full-site promotion will be launched, and GMV and monetization rate are expected to increase. The bank predicts that Taotian Group's revenue in FY25Q1 will increase by 2.8% YoY. Overall, household retail consumption has continued to recover since CY24Q2. As for the cloud, large models have reduced their prices, and AI applications have been implemented in multiple fields. The bank predicts that the cloud business revenue in FY25Q1 will increase by 4.8% YoY. Regarding international e-commerce, Speed ??Sell Through has reached cooperation with Magalu, and the monetization rate is expected to increase. The bank predicts that international business revenue in FY25Q1 will increase by 34.7% YoY. As for other businesses, it is expected that local life revenue will increase by 11.1% YoY in FY25Q1; Cainiao’s revenue is expected to increase by 28.1% YoY; and DME’s revenue is expected to decrease by 5.0% YoY.
The bank pointed out that since 2023, Alibaba has continued to undergo organizational restructuring and continuous adjustments of personnel and strategies, which has partially eased the pressure brought by fierce market competition. Considering that the company emphasizes continuous increase in investment to enhance competitiveness, the bank predicts that Alibaba's revenue from FY2025 to FY2027 will be 1024.9/1123.6/1219.3 billion yuan (previously 1019.6/1110/1212.3 billion yuan), with a YoY increase of 9%/10%/9%; the bank predicts that the Non-GAAP net income from FY2025 to FY2027 will be 156.5/162.2/164.7 billion yuan (155.8/160.4/163.8 billion yuan), maintaining a “buy” rating.