同时，超过60%的受访者认为，如果这位共和党候选人连任总统，A survey showed that in the case where Trump won the election, the number of people supporting gold as a safe haven asset was twice that of the US dollar. Using history as a guide, spot gold rose more than 50% during Trump's presidency, and the US dollar fell by more than 10%.
According to a recent media survey, if Trump re-enters the White House, gold will be the best portfolio hedge.
The survey was conducted from July 22-26 and covered 480 respondents, including portfolio managers, analysts, and retail investors. The results showed that in the case where Trump won the election, the number of people supporting gold as a safe haven asset was twice as many as those supporting the US dollar.
Meanwhile, more than 60% of respondents believe that if the Republican candidate is re-elected as president, the dollar will eventually weaken.
The logic behind this is that Trump advocates a series of easing policies, such as cutting corporate taxes, raising tariffs, and easing regulations, to stimulate economic growth while boosting inflation while weakening the dollar. Wall Street is worried that inflation caused by Trump's aggressive fiscal policy may even force the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate hikes.
If the Republican Party achieves full control of Congress, this will give Trump more freedom to formulate comprehensive economic policies, and may further support the price of gold.
J.P. Morgan analyst Gregory Shearer recently released a report stating that factors such as geopolitical tension, widening US fiscal deficits, and global central banks have all boosted the price of gold. Regardless of the election results, these factors are likely to persist, and will be further amplified when Trump 2.0 and the Republican Party controls Congress.
Shearer wrote:
Gold is in an upward golden position.
Taking history as a guide, media data shows that the US dollar fell by more than 10% during Trump's four years of administration (January 2017 to January 2021), while spot gold rose by more than 50%.
Notably, the rise in gold prices during Trump's term was partly due to the special impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to close to zero, and investors sought safe haven, driving the price of gold to a record high in August 2020.
This time, the macro environment is once again favorable to gold. Wall Street anticipates that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. Furthermore, since 2022, central banks have been buying gold in a big way to get rid of their dependence on the US dollar.