Finance and Economics Intelligence News learned that the rise in the US Treasury bond market has opened a week full of variables for the global bond market. The continuous rise in bond prices indicates the possibility of achieving a consecutive third month of growth, which will be the longest period of rising market in three years. In Monday's trading, long-term bonds led the gain, and the yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds fell by about 5 basis points, mainly because traders were preparing for the Fed's policy decision on July 31. The market generally expects that the Fed may send a signal of an impending easing cycle, and this expectation has driven up US Treasury bond prices.

Eric Nelson, macro strategy analyst at Wells Fargo & Co, said, 'Looking at market pricing, we seem to be ready for a rate cut in September.' He further raised the question, 'Can we cut interest rates twice? Of course we can. But I think the market is more concerned about whether we can cut interest rates six times, or even more?'

According to data, recent gains have pushed a key indicator of US debt up 1.3% this month, with returns rising to around 3.9% since the end of April. At the same time, the Bloomberg dollar spot index fell by about 0.8% in July.

This week, global investors are focusing on a series of major central bank decisions, including the Bank of Japan and the Fed on Wednesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday, hoping to find clues to future trends in global borrowing costs.

In the US, swap traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points twice by the end of 2024, with the first cut possibly coming in September. Last week, former New York Fed Chairman William Dudley called for a rate cut in July, although signs of a US economic recovery quickly offset expectations for a rate cut.

In addition, bond traders widely expect the US Treasury to comply with its previously announced guidance for US bond issuance in its so-called quarterly refinancing announcement on Wednesday, and to maintain stable long-term US bond issuance for two consecutive quarters. Nonetheless, market attention has increased after some Republicans criticized the Biden administration for manipulating issuance strategies to lower yields and boost the economy.

It is understood that some Republicans frequently accuse the Biden administration of arbitrarily manipulating US Treasury issuance strategies. In the view of Bank of America and many investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, given the worsening expectations of the US government's deficit, the Treasury may have to modify its future issuance guidelines, and raising its issuance expectations will undoubtedly drive yields of all maturities of US bonds into an upward trajectory, especially shorter-term ones.

In response, Treasury Secretary Yellen made it clear on Friday that the US Treasury has 'no such strategy' to try to ease the financial situation. Josh Frost, head of federal bond issuance, delivered a detailed speech earlier this month explaining all aspects of the Treasury's issuance of US bonds, showing how the department's decisions are made within the normal range and emphasizing compliance with the expectations and suggestions of market participants.

In summary, the dynamics of the US Treasury bond market and the upcoming central bank decisions suggest that the global financial market will usher in a week full of uncertainty and opportunities. Investors and decision-makers are closely monitoring these developments in order to capture the next market trend.