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後場に注目すべき3つのポイント~日銀会合控え買い手控えムード強まる

Three points to pay attention to in the afternoon ~ As the Bank of Japan meeting approaches, buying and selling restraint increases.

Fisco Japan ·  23:32

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in after-sale transactions on the 30th.

・The Nikkei Average falls, and the mood of buyers preparing for the Bank of Japan meeting intensifies

・The dollar and yen are solid, buyback to the dollar

・The top contributor to price drops is Fast Rite <9983>, and East Elec <8035> is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average falls, and the mood of buyers preparing for the Bank of Japan meeting intensifies

The Nikkei Average fell. The forward transaction was closed at 38101.24 yen (estimated turnover 0.7 billion 60 million shares), which was 367.39 yen lower (-0.96%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market on the 29th was mixed. The Dow average closed at 40539.93 dollars (-0.12%) lower by 49.41 dollars, the NASDAQ closed at 17370.20 with a 12.32 point increase (+ 0.07%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5463.54 with a 4.44 point increase (+ 0.08%). Purchases that received good financial results from companies continued, and after being close, they rose. While there were no announcements of major economic indicators and there was little movement, the Dow began to decline due to sales that received a sense of caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Expectations for the financial results of major high-tech companies on the NASDAQ remained strong and steady, and the market price ended mixed.

While US stocks were high and easy, yesterday's drastic rebound and the like took precedence, and the Tokyo market began trading with a selling advantage. The Nikkei Average remained in the 38,000 yen range, but since the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting is being held from today to tomorrow, the wait-and-see attitude has strengthened, and push buying is limited. It was a development where the decline gradually widened, and it became a completely depreciation point where over 80% of all stocks in the Prime Market fell.

In stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, Komatsu (6301) was sold due to a slowdown in profit growth in the first quarter financial results, and the Rakuten Group (4755), which postponed the group's financial business restructuring medal from October this year to next January, also declined. Also, in response to interest rate declines, there aren't even bank stocks such as Shizuoka FG <5831>, Chiba Bank <8331>, Fukuoka Financial G <8354>, and Sumitomo Mitsui <8316>. Additionally, Shionogi Pharmaceutical <4507>, Disco <6146>, Socionext <6526>, and Nitori Holdings <9843> were sold.

Meanwhile, FANUC <6954>, which had first-quarter orders above expectations and revised the full-year forecast upward, was bought, and real estate stocks such as Mitsui Fudosan <8801>, Sumitomo Real Estate <8830>, and Mitsubishi Estate <8802> are strong in response to interest rate declines. In addition to this, Omron <6645>, Chugai Pharmaceutical <4519>, NSK <6471>, Sony Group <6758>, and Nissan's own <7201> are solid.

By industry, mining, banking, machinery, metal products, textile products, etc. declined, while only 2 sectors rose, real estate and transportation equipment.

The exchange rate is a small movement at 153 yen 90 yen per dollar, but the 10-year government bond yield, which is an indicator of long-term interest rates, has declined to 1.015% and continued to fall for 4 days. Ahead of the announcement of the results of tomorrow's Bank of Japan meeting, a sense of tension is growing in both the exchange market and the interest rate market. The backstage Tokyo market is developing with an eye on the exchange market and the interest rate market, but since aggressive push purchases have been refrained, it seems that there will also be a scene where the Nikkei Average falls below 38,000 yen.

■The dollar and yen are solid, buyback to the dollar

The dollar and yen remained solid in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 30th. The Nikkei Stock Average, which had rebounded the day before, became soft again, and yen purchases, which were disgusted by the depreciation of Japanese stocks, took precedence. However, the 153 yen range was bought back into the dollar due to a sense of undervaluation, and it surfaced to the 154 yen range. It is difficult to sell dollars to the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The transaction range up to this point is 153 yen 61 yen to 154 yen 25 sen for the dollar and yen, 166 yen 18 yen to 166 yen 88 sen for the euro and yen, and 1.0814 dollars to 1.0823 dollars for the euro dollar.

■Backstage check stocks

・3 brands, such as GDAT <3841> and WASH HOUSE <6537>, etc., are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・The top contributor to price drops is Fast Rite <9983>, and East Elec <8035> is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・Japan-June unemployment rate: 2.5% (forecast: 2.6%, May: 2.6%)

・Daily/June effective job offer ratio: 1.23 times (forecast: 1.24 times, May: 1.24 times)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・US Treasury

“The federal government's borrowing requirements forecast for the July-9 fiscal year was revised downward to 740 billion dollars (847 billion dollars as of 4/29), and the forecast for the October-12 fiscal year is 565 billion dollars”

<Domestic>

・Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (until 31st)

<Overseas>

・US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, until 31st)

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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