Intelligent Finance APP learned that GF Securities released a research report stating that since the second half of 2020, with the rate of recovery of China's automobile supply chain leading to a significant increase in the export volume of Chinese brand trucks, truck exports have remained high-speed growth since 21. According to the calculation of China Automotive Association, in June 24, truck exports reached 0.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of +16.5%/-2.0%. In the first half of 24, truck exports reached 0.389 million units, an increase of +26.1% year-on-year, of which heavy trucks cumulative exports reached 0.152 million units, an increase of +9.3% year-on-year. According to the calculation of China Automotive Association, the proportion of truck exports increased from 8.2% in 21 to 21.5% in the first half of 24, and the increase in export proportion is helpful to improving the stability of sales and profitability. Since 23 years, the truck industry has continued to recover, with exports stable and rising, and leading companies expected to release significant performance elasticity.

GF Securities' main points are as follows:

Since the second half of 2020, with the rate of recovery of China's automobile supply chain leading to a significant increase in the export volume of Chinese brand trucks, truck exports have remained high-speed growth since 21.

GF Securities believes that under the impact of the early epidemic, the shortage of overseas supplies has provided a breakthrough opportunity for Chinese brand truck exports. After the epidemic, the good cost control of domestic enterprises has improved the competitiveness and profitability of Chinese brand overseas. Secondly, reputation may contribute positive effects to the elasticity and sustainability of exports: Referring to the reputation and sales growth of China National Heavy Truck MAN series in a single domestic market needs a longer period of time, and achieving breakthroughs in more complex overseas markets is more difficult. Once a good reputation is established based on cost-effectiveness, the elasticity and sustainability of exports can be expected. In addition, cost-effectiveness supports the long-term growth logic of exports, and truck exports are expected to maintain a good situation in Central and South America and the "Belt and Road" region, gradually breaking through other markets, and export growth may open the second growth curve of Chinese brands.

In addition, cost-effectiveness supports the long-term growth logic of exports, and truck exports are expected to maintain a good situation in Central and South America and the "Belt and Road" region, gradually breaking through other markets, and export growth may open the second growth curve of Chinese brands.

According to the General Administration of Customs, in June, the export of heavy trucks dropped slightly month-on-month under a high base. Excluding Russia, the export of heavy trucks in the first half of 24 increased by +28.6% year-on-year. According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 24, truck exports reached 0.063 million units, a month-on-month increase of +7.5%/-8.3%. Among them, the heavy truck output was 0.026 million units, with a year-on-year decrease of -10.8%/-24.9%, and a month-on-month increase of +6.4%/-20.2% after Russia was excluded. In the first half of 24, truck exports reached 0.367 million units, an increase of +11.5% year-on-year, and an increase of +20.7% year-on-year after Russia was excluded; among them, the cumulative exports of heavy trucks reached 0.169 million units, an increase of +8.4% year-on-year, and an increase of +28.6% year-on-year after Russia was excluded.

According to the calculation of China Automotive Association, in June 24, truck exports reached 0.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of +16.5%/-2.0%. In the first half of 24, truck exports reached 0.389 million units, an increase of +26.1% year-on-year, of which heavy trucks cumulative exports reached 0.152 million units, an increase of +9.3% year-on-year. In the first half of 2024, Sinotruk/Beiqi Foton/Shaanxi Automobile Group/FAW Group/Dongfeng Auto trucks exported 6.4/7.0/0.031/0.031/0.029 million units, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of -3.6%/+31.2%/+15.1%/+74.5%/+79.2%. In the first half of 2024, Sinotruk/Shaanxi Automobile Group/FAW Group/Dongfeng Auto/Beiqi Foton heavy trucks exported 6.3/3.0/0.03/0.014/0.006 million units, a year-on-year decrease of -3.5%/+19.0%/+58.7%/+67.1%/-50.3%.

According to the General Administration of Customs, the top three regions for truck exports in June 24 were Russia, Mexico and Vietnam, with year-on-year decreases of -19.8%/+37.7%/+10.7%; in the first half of 24, the top three regions for cumulative exports were Russia, Mexico and Vietnam, with year-on-year decreases of -17.9%/+17.5%/+48.2%.

Investment advice: According to the calculation of China Automotive Association, the proportion of truck exports increased from 8.2% in 21 to 21.5% in the first half of 24, and the increase in export proportion is helpful to improving the stability of sales and profitability. Since 23 years, the truck industry has continued to recover, with exports stable and rising, and leading companies expected to release significant performance elasticity. The recommended vehicle products with high market share are Alfa, Chinese National Heavy Duty Truck (000951.SZ) with outstanding export performance, Beiqi Foton Motors (600166.SH), FAW Jiefang Group (000800.SZ); Recommended parts insist on the concentric multi-circle strategy, Weichai Power (000338.SZ, 02338) with internationalization leading, Weifu High-Technology Group (000581.SZ) with low valuation, high barriers, and stable profitability and dividends, and Tianrun Industry Technology (002283.SZ) with category expansion and internationalization strategy.

Risk warning: the industry's prosperity is declining; supply of core components is limited; industry competition is increasing.