Jerome Powell Faces Trump Dilemma Over Potential Policy Shocks Amid Growing Election Uncertainty, Says Former New York Fed Member
Jerome Powell Faces Trump Dilemma Over Potential Policy Shocks Amid Growing Election Uncertainty, Says Former New York Fed Member
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the Federal Reserve is grappling with the potential impact of former President Donald Trump's policy shocks on the economy and interest rates. This has created a dilemma for the Fed, which is now considering the possibility of a second Trump presidency and the potential policy changes that could follow. They also consider the possibility that Vice President Kamala Harris could shift the balance.
在美国总统大选即将到来之际，联邦储备委员会正在处理前总统特朗普政策冲击对经济和利率的潜在影响。这给联邦储备委员会带来了困境，现在他们正在考虑第二任特朗普总统可能带来的潜在政策变化。他们还考虑到副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯可能会改变平衡。
What Happened: The Fed is currently faced with a complex situation, as it must consider the potential impact of Trump policy shocks on the economy and interest rates, according to an opinion piece published in Financial Times by Krishna Guha, vice-chair of Evercore ISI and a former member of the management committee of the New York Fed.
据Finanical Times刊登的 Krishna Guha 的一篇观点文章称，美联储当前面临复杂的局面，因为它必须考虑特朗普政策冲击对经济和利率的潜在影响。Guha是Evercore ISI的副主席和纽约联储管理委员会的前成员。
The Fed's current Summary of Economic Projections is essentially a "constrained Harris" forecast, assuming no new shocks, likely in a scenario where Harris wins but is limited by a Republican Senate.
美联储当前的经济预测摘要基本上是一份“限制的哈里斯”预测，假设没有新的冲击，很可能是在哈里斯获胜但被共和党控制的情况下。
However, the potential for Trump to disrupt the status quo is a significant concern. This has led to a dilemma for the Fed: whether to update its policy plans early in light of prospective shocks or wait and risk falling behind the curve again.
然而，特朗普破坏现状的潜力是一个重大问题。这给联邦储备委员会带来了一个困境：是更新其政策计划还是等待再次落后于大势。
The Fed is also aware of the difficulty of modeling both the mechanical impacts and the effects on animal spirits and risk premia. It does not want to appear as if it is prejudging Trump policies as inflationary during the election season, according to the piece.
联邦储备委员会还意识到模拟机械影响和动物精神以及风险溢价的难度。根据这篇文章，它不想在选举季节被视为预先判断特朗普的政策具有通胀性。
"On current information, well positioned in mid-2025 might mean a rate in the 4 to 4.5% range — significantly below the current 5.25 to 5.5% rate, but still a bit restrictive," Guha wrote.
Guha写道：“根据当前信息，在2025年中期处于良好位置可能意味着利率在4到4.5％的区间内，这比目前的5.25到5.5％的利率明显低得多，但仍然有点严格。”
Why It Matters: The Fed's current predicament is the latest development in a series of events that have put the central bank under intense scrutiny. Earlier this year, the Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell was under intense scrutiny as the U.S. presidential election approached.
为什么它事关重要：联邦储备委员会当前的困境是一系列事件的最新发展，这些事件使得中央银行受到了严密的审查。今年早些时候，在美国总统大选临近之际，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔备受关注。
Market experts were questioning Powell's ability to remain independent of political pressure. This was followed by the Fed's May FOMC meeting, where the minutes delivered a harsh reality check to investors, countering the dovish signals earlier conveyed by Powell during the May press conference. The minutes reignited investor fears about the increasing likelihood of a prolonged period of high interest rates.
市场专家开始质疑鲍威尔维持独立于政治压力的能力。紧随其后的是美联储5月FOMC会议，其中会议纪要向投资者发出了一个严峻的现实警告，这与鲍威尔在5月份新闻发布会上传达的鸽派信号相反。 纪要重新点燃了投资者对高利率持续时间加长的担忧。
However, the situation seemed to be shifting when, in July, the Fed's potential rate cut plans were hinted at by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Williams suggested that a rate cut could be on the cards if the recent slowdown in inflation persists, indicating that the Fed might be closer to this decision than previously thought.
但是，当纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯暗示美联储可能削减利率时，情况似乎在转变。威廉姆斯表示，如果最近的通货膨胀放缓持续，削减利率可能成为选项，这表明美联储可能比先前预计更接近这个决定。
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Kaustubh Bagalkote
这个故事是使用Benzinga Neuro生成的，并由Kaustubh Bagalkote编辑