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Alibaba's (09988) stock price surged on Monday. It rose more than 5% intraday, making it the strongest gain among technology stocks, while leading blue chips to contribute to market gains. In terms of news, Alibaba Cloud technology was used to broadcast the Olympics and Taotian to adjust merchant rules as the main catalyst for the rise.
This year's Paris Olympics was the first time in history that cloud broadcasting was used. For the first time, cloud computing surpassed satellites to become the mainstream Olympic broadcast method. More than two-thirds of the signals were distributed globally based on Alibaba Cloud. The IOC called this a major technological advance. Alibaba Chairman Choi Sung-xin mentioned that currently the group provides a core cloud planning system for the Olympic Transfer System (OBS) cloud broadcast, so that videos produced remotely can be transmitted to all parts of the world at low cost and at high speed.
At the same time, Taotian intensively adjusted merchant rules on July 26. There are three major changes: major changes in store traffic rules, clearly using “experience points” as the core basis for traffic allocation; loosening “refunds only” for high-experience branch stores; in addition, Alibaba will charge 0.6% of the basic software service fee for confirmed transactions from merchants on Tmall and Taobao platforms, and the rate is 0.6% of the transaction amount for each order.
Market participants believe that this move will boost the revenue of Alibaba's core merchants. According to a recent research report published by Jefferies, Alibaba's future stock price will be boosted by multiple factors, including optimism that the growth gap between Alibaba's e-commerce core CMR (user managed revenue) and GMV (total commodity transaction value) will narrow.
Furthermore, the agency is actively optimistic that Alibaba will complete its main listing in Hong Kong in August and be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in September, and it will continue to be favorable in the near future. According to the financial report released on May 14, Alibaba expects to complete the transition from a secondary listing to a dual major listing by the end of August this year.
Continuing the above positive developments, Alibaba's stock price is still expected to continue the upward trend since the low level at the beginning of this month. However, in the short term, it is expected that the trend line since the high level in May may hinder the current upward trend. Earlier today, it was already the first to return to 1% to see if it can maintain the main moving average on the daily chart. A return to HK$80 will be seen as a key signal improvement. The next catalyst for the stock price is the results for the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year announced on August 22. It is expected that stocks will continue to be digested before the results are announced. Prices are rebounding.
