Veteran Investor Boosts S&P 500 Price Targets: 'Magnificent 7 Stocks Will Remain Magnificent'
Veteran Investor Boosts S&P 500 Price Targets: 'Magnificent 7 Stocks Will Remain Magnificent'
Ed Yardeni has turned even more bullish on the S&P 500.
Ed Yardeni更看好标普500指数。
What Happened: The veteran Wall Street investor is hiking his year-end target and forecasting a significant surge by the end of this decade fueled by robust earnings and technological advancements.
事件经过:这位资深华尔街投资者提高了年底目标,并预测到年底前业绩强劲和技术进步将推动大幅增长。
In a note, the president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 from 5,400 to 5,800 points — implying a 6% surge from current levels.
Yardeni Research总裁兼首席投资策略师在一份报告中将标普500指数的年末目标从5400点上调至5800点,这意味着指数将比当前水平上涨6%。
Yardeni also projects that the index, which is closely replicated by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), could reach 6,300 points in 2025 and 6,825 points in 2026 under a "Roaring 2020s scenario," which he estimates has a 60% probability.
Yardeni还预计,在“狂热的2020年代”情况下,由SPDR标普500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY)密切复制的指数可能在2025年达到6300点,在2026年达到6825点,Yardeni估计该情况的可能性为60%。
Forward earnings could hit $400 per share by the end of 2029, potentially pushing the S&P 500 to 8,400 points, a 55% rally from current levels, he said.
他表示,截至2029年底,前瞻性盈利可能达到每股400美元,可能将标普500指数推高至8400点,较当前水平上涨55%。
Earnings As Backbone Of Continued Stock Market Gains
盈利是持续股市增长的支柱
He highlighted that second-quarter earnings reporting season is progressing well, with the earnings-per-share (EPS) growth rate for S&P 500 companies soaring to 8.7% year-over-year during the week of July 25. Yardeni expects full-year EPS growth to reach 10%-12% year-over-year.
他强调,第二季度的盈利报告季节进展顺利,标普500公司的每股收益增长率在7月25日这周同比大涨8.7%。Yardeni预计全年每股收益增长率将达到10%-12%。
Yardeni expects S&P 500 forward revenues per share to rise further, after hitting record highs with a 5.7% year-over-year increase during the week of July 18.
Yardeni预计标普500前景收入每股将进一步上升,因为在7月18日的一周中同比增长了5.7%创下纪录。
"That's a solid increase considering that inflation has moderated significantly over the past year. The S&P 500 forward profit margin at 13.4% currently is almost back to its record high of early 2022," he wrote.
他写道:“考虑到过去一年通胀大幅放缓,这是一次坚实的增长。目前的标普500期货利润率已经接近2022年初的历史高位。
Magnificent 7 And Broader Market Strength
科技七巨头和更广泛的市场强势
"We think that the very highly valued Magnificent-7 stocks will remain magnificent and continue to sport a high collective forward P/E, providing support to the S&P 500," Yardeni stated.
“我们认为非常高估值的科技七巨头股票将继续保持高 collective forward P/E,并提供对标普500的支持,”Yardeni表示。
He also suggests that the forward P/E of the S&P 493 (the S&P 500 minus these seven stocks) could rise further as corporate profit margins benefit from technological innovations such as automation, robotics, AI, the cloud, and supercomputing.
他还建议,随着自动化、机器人技术、人工智能、云计算、超级计算等技术创新的推进,标普493(标普500减去这七只股票)的forward P/E可能会进一步上涨,公司利润率也会从中受益。
Near-Term Election Volatility, Fed Policy To Remain Restrictive
近期选举波动和美联储政策依然限制
Despite the bullish outlook, Yardeni expects some near-term volatility.
尽管前景乐观,但Yardeni预计会有一些短期波动。
He predicts the S&P 500 will fluctuate below its July 16 record high through the election period, finding support around 5,450, its 50-day moving average, thanks to strong corporate earnings.
他预测,标普500指数将在选举期间低于7月16日的纪录高水平波动,并在5,450点(其50日移动平均水平)处寻找支撑,得益于强劲的企业盈利。
Yardeni forecasts the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.00% to 5.25% in September and maintain it steady for the rest of the year.
Yardeni预测,联邦基金利率将在9月份降低25个基点,降至5.00%至5.25%的区间,并在今年余下时间内保持稳定。
"While we expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut interest rates at its September meeting, we do not think it needs to because we don't see a recession looming," he explained.
他解释道:“虽然我们预计联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将在9月份会议上降息,但我们认为没有必要这样做,因为我们认为没有经济衰退的迹象。”
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