The quarterly results for Glodon Company Limited (SZSE:002410) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Statutory earnings per share disappointed, coming in -79% short of expectations, at CN¥0.0037. Fortunately revenue performance was a lot stronger at CN¥1.3b arriving 18% ahead of predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Glodon from 20 analysts is for revenues of CN¥6.79b in 2024. If met, it would imply a credible 5.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 731% to CN¥0.30. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥6.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.30 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CN¥13.10, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Glodon, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥20.20 and the most bearish at CN¥9.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Glodon's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Glodon.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Glodon's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥13.10, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Glodon analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Glodon you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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