随着装机需求持续增长和技术升级加速，光伏供给侧最早或于2025H2前逐步重构，产业链价格和盈利有望回稳，且具备产品、成本、资金和国际化等方面优势的优质龙头有望率先引领行业反转。Through policy restrictions and market-based competition, the backward production capacity of photovoltaics will gradually enter the stage of substantial clearance. The progress is expected to be battery modules > silicon > silicon wafers.
Production capacity in the photovoltaic industry chain has basically peaked. With prices already bottoming out, business performance has shrunk sharply and depreciation pressure on backward assets have caused major industry chain enterprises to enter the cash consumption stage. It is expected that some second- and third-tier manufacturers will only be able to support 6-12 months of capital.
Through policy restrictions and market-based competition, the backward production capacity of photovoltaics will gradually enter the stage of substantial clearance. The progress is expected to be battery modules > silicon > silicon wafers.
As demand for installed equipment continues to grow and technology upgrades accelerate, the PV supply side is gradually restructured as early as 2025H2. Industrial chain prices and profits are expected to stabilize, and high-quality leaders with advantages in products, costs, capital, and internationalization are expected to take the lead in leading the reversal of the industry.
Everbright Securities pointed out that at present, the photovoltaic industry is overcapacity and competition is fierce. Since this year, relevant departments have begun to push the industry to remove production capacity. Following the schedule set by major conferences, the PV industry is expected to accelerate the removal of production capacity in the future, especially eliminating backward production capacity and promoting the healthy recovery of the industry. Leading technology-leading companies are expected to benefit.
The Zhongyuan Securities Research Report pointed out that the photovoltaic industry's layoffs, maintenance stoppages, and production stoppages have occurred one after another. The industry is losing capacity, and the PV industry chain prices are expected to bottom out. However, it will take time for the photovoltaic industry to completely eliminate backward production capacity, and achieve a balance between supply and demand and a reversal of supply and demand. PV sector valuations are at historically low levels.
In the short term, the photovoltaic sector surpassed the decline and rebounded, and bottomed out repeatedly.
The mid-term proposal focuses on leading companies in segments such as photovoltaic glass, integrated module factories, polycrystalline silicon, perovskite battery equipment, and electronic silver paste.
Companies related to the photovoltaic industry chain:
Xinte Energy (01799), GCL Technology (03800), Follett Glass (06865), Xinyi Glass (00868)
