Citigroup expects Hang Lung Properties (00101) to earn 3.5 billion Hong Kong dollars in 2024, a 6% year-on-year decline in 2025.
According to the report released by Citigroup on the financial app iFinance, it has maintained its 'buy' rating for Hang Lung Properties (00101), expecting a profit of HKD 3.5 billion in 2024, and a year-on-year decline of 6% in 2025. The target price has been lowered from HKD 11.4 to HKD 7.3, a decrease of 36%. After mid-term dividend cuts of 33% and a 22% reduction in profits, the stock price fell by 12%.
The bank expects that the annual dividend per share could remain at HKD 0.52, a drastic reduction of 33% year-on-year. Management says cutting dividends is to maintain the sustainability of cash flow, and the bank estimates that liabilities will reach its peak in 2026. The bank stated that Hang Lung Properties' mainland mall tenants' sales fell by 13% year-on-year, and its major Hong Kong tenants showed negative growth in lease renewals in the first half of 2024. The bleak retail prospects may be a mystery to recent stock prices, and investors are concerned about whether capital expenditures and rental income cash flows are sufficient.
However, the bank still believes that the company has its operational advantages: 1) maintaining local market share; 2) consistently high occupancy rates; 3) bringing in good traffic through cooperation with major brands; and 4) attracting high-end shoppers better.