HSBC 2024 Outlook: Sees NII Of Around $43B And RoTE In The Mid-Teens; Expects To Maintain the CET1 Capital Ratio Within 14% To 14.5%
HSBC 2024 Outlook: Sees NII Of Around $43B And RoTE In The Mid-Teens; Expects To Maintain the CET1 Capital Ratio Within 14% To 14.5%
Outlook
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We will now target a return on average tangible equity ('RoTE'), excluding the impact of notable items, in the mid-teens for both 2024 and 2025.
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Based upon our current forecasts, we expect banking NII of around $43bn in 2024. This guidance remains dependent on the path of interest rates globally.
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While loan growth was 1% in 1H24, revenue has continued to benefit from elevated interest rates. Over the medium to long term, we continue to expect mid-single digit year-on-year percentage growth in customer lending.
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We are reiterating our cost growth guidance of approximately 5% for 2024 compared with 2023, on a target basis, and now expect ECL charges as a percentage of average gross loans in 2024 to be within our medium-term planning range of 30bps to 40bps (including customer lending balances transferred to held for sale).
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Our guidance reflects our current outlook for the global macroeconomic environment, including customer and financial markets activity. This includes our modelling of a number of market dependent factors, such as market-implied interest rates (as of mid-July 2024), as well as customer behaviour and activity levels.
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We intend to manage our CET1 capital ratio within our medium-term target range of 14% to 14.5%, with a dividend payout ratio target basis of 50% for 2024, which excludes material notable items and related impacts.
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Note: we do not reconcile our forward guidance on RoTE excluding notable items, target basis operating expenses, dividend payout ratio target basis or banking NII to their equivalent reported measures.
展望
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我們將在2024年和2025年實現中等青年人回報率（RoTE）的平均有形股本回報率，不包括值得注意的項目的影響。
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根據我們目前的預測，我們預計2024年銀行淨利息收入約爲430億美元。這一指引仍然取決於全球利率走勢。
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雖然1H24貸款增長了1%，但收入仍繼續受益於利率的上漲。中長期內，我們仍然預計客戶貸款年同比增長中高單位數。
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我們重申2024年與2023年相比成本增長約爲5%的指引，並且現在預計2024年ECL費用佔平均毛貸款的比例將在我們的中長期規劃範圍內爲30個點子到40個點子（包括轉售客戶貸款餘額）。
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我們的指引反映了我們對全球宏觀經濟環境、客戶和金融市場活動的當前前景，包括我們對多個市場相關因素的建模，如市場隱含的利率（截至2024年7月中旬），以及客戶行爲和活動水平。
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我們打算將我們的CET1資本充足率在14%至14.5%的中長期目標範圍內管理，2024年的股息支付比率以50%的目標爲基礎，不包括重大項目和相關影響。
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注意：我們不會將關於RoTE排除重大項目、營業費用，股息支付比率和銀行淨利息收入的前瞻性指引與它們相應的報告措施進行調和。