与此同时，对绿色倡议的投资，无论是私人消费还是企业投资，都乏善可陈。在欧洲尤其如此，经济增长缓慢继续阻碍着多个行业的投资。与此同时，疲弱的制造业采购经理人指数表明，欧洲和美国的工业活动都很疲弱，这进一步打压了铝价。After aluminum prices rose in the spring and early summer, the bulls became enthusiastic, believing that "green" initiatives such as electric cars, renewable energy, and related transmission technologies would boost aluminum prices. However, contrary to their expectations, the price of LME aluminum has continued to steadily decline since early June.
This downward trend has made aluminum buyers uncertain about future prices. In fact, many people now have to question what factors are really driving the market if the demand for new technologies has subsided.
This enthusiasm largely depends on the growth of consumption in Asia. The economic slowdown in some Asian countries has seriously affected demand and correspondingly led to disappointment about aluminum prices.
At the same time, investments in green initiatives, whether by private consumption or corporate investment, are lackluster. This is especially true in Europe, where slow economic growth continues to hinder investment in multiple industries. Meanwhile, the weak Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing indicates that industrial activity in Europe and the United States is weak, further suppressing aluminum prices.
The rise in aluminum prices in the first quarter prompted some people to replenish inventory, despite the fact that consumer inventory may have exceeded their demand at the beginning of the year. Weak demand also led to an increase in LME's primary aluminum inventory, which depressed market sentiment and put pressure on prices.
In fact, the demand for green initiatives is always a long-term prospect. Speculators anticipate that the prices of aluminum and copper will soon rise due to the development of renewable energy and electric cars. If (or when) the demand for renewable energy becomes a reality, it is likely to be in the latter half of this decade. This requires waiting time, and the targets and subsidies for electric cars are also reduced in Europe's tight budget environment.
Meanwhile, factories and traders continue to hold aluminum, hoping that the price level will stabilize. However, due to weak demand and high inventory levels, aluminum prices are likely to remain at low levels in the future, as there seems to be no sign of support for prices in the coming months.
LME aluminum daily chart
