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银河证券:资产荒环境下高股息策略延续 看好银行板块配置价值

Galaxy Securities: Bullish on the value of sector allocation for banks continuing high-dividend strategy in the environment of asset scarcity.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jul 31 08:40

Public funds release Q2 2024 heavyweight stock holding data.

Zhitong Finance and Economics app learned that Galaxy Securities released a research report, stating that in the environment of asset shortage, the high-dividend strategy continued, the proportion of bank sector's heavy holdings increased, state-owned banks continued to enjoy the focus, and the attention to high-quality urban and rural commercial banks increased. The opening of monetary policy space is helpful for promoting economic recovery. The Third Plenary Session of the 2024Q2 deepened the reform of the financial system, which is bullish for the transformation of banking risk improvement, business model, and operational quality. Under the promotion of state-owned enterprise reform, market value management strengthening, and asset shortage continuing, the high-dividend strategy is still mainstream, and the configuration value of the bank sector is still bullish: (1) The dividend value is significant, benefiting from the state-owned large banks with high degree of reform. Recommend Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH), China Construction Bank (601939.SH), and Postal Savings Bank of China (601658.SH);(2) In the window period of disclosing the mid-year report in August, high-quality urban and rural commercial banks with the benefits of financial supply-side reform and prominent growth, recommend Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank (601128.SH) and Bank of Chengdu (601838.SH).

Event:

Public funds released Q2 2024 heavyweight stock holding data. Due to the fact that the holding data of active funds can better reflect changes in market style, the investment types in the heavy holdings of public fund stocks data are selected for screening, and the data changes of fund holdings are calculated and analyzed on the basis of active funds (common stock type, partial stock mixed type, stock and bond balance type, and flexible allocation type) as a unified caliber.

The main viewpoints of Galaxy Securities are as follows:

In Q2 2024, the fund maintained a low allocation to the bank sector, with a continuing increase in the low allocation ratio.

In Q2 2024, the fund maintained a low allocation to the bank sector, with a continuing increase in the low allocation ratio. The low allocation ratio of the bank sector in Q2 2024 was 9.15%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points from Q1 2024. Among sub-sectors, the low allocation ratios of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 6.11%, 2.68%, 0.30%, and 0.06%, respectively. Among them, the low allocation ratios of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks increased by 0.47, 0.27, and 0.05 percentage points, respectively, compared with Q1 2024; the low allocation ratio of rural commercial banks continued to shrink, narrowing by 0.04 percentage points compared with Q1 2024.

In Q2 2024, the fund increased its heavy holdings ratio for the bank sector.

In Q2 2024, the fund's total market value of bank holdings was CNY 41.161 billion, a 6.03% increase from Q1 2024; the holding ratio was 2.77%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from Q1 2024, ranking 13th in the Shenwan level one industry, which was the same as last quarter. Since Q1 2020, the average and median values of the fund's overall holdings of banks have been 2.98% and 2.8%, respectively, with the current position at a relatively low level since 2020. Among sub-sectors, the holding ratios of state-owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 0.87%, 1.04%, and 0.19%, respectively, which increased by 0.16, 0.08, and 0.07 percentage points, respectively, compared with Q1 2024, of which the holding ratio of state-owned banks has been continuously increasing since Q2 2023; the holding ratio of joint-stock banks was 0.67%, the same as in Q1 2024. The positions of state-owned banks and rural commercial banks were higher than the average and median values of Q1 2020-Q2 2024, while those of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks were relatively low compared with the average and median values since 2020.

In terms of individual stocks, state-owned banks and high-quality urban and rural commercial banks continue to receive attention.

In Q2 2024, the top 5 banks with heavyweight positions in the fund were CM Bank, Bank of Chengdu, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of Ningbo, with heavy holding ratios of 0.61%, 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.26% and 0.26%, respectively, an increase of 0.01, 0.04, 0.05, 0.04, and 0.04 percentage points, respectively, compared with Q1 2024; the Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of Hangzhou, Bank of Chengdu, and Bank of Ningbo received the most additional positions, with their positions increasing by 0.1, 0.06, 0.05, 0.04, and 0.03 percentage points, respectively, compared with Q1 2024. CM Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Ningbo, and China Construction Bank had more heavy holding funds, with 246, 170, 126, 82, and 81, respectively. State-owned banks and high-quality urban and rural commercial banks are the main areas where the fund is bullish in the banking sector.

Risk warning:

The risk of deteriorating asset quality due to slower-than-expected economic growth: The risk of net interest margin being under pressure due to continued downward trend in interest rates: the risk of weakening scale orientation and slowing revenue growth:

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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