One Analyst Expects Stocks To Soar After The Fed's Interest Rate Decision Wednesday
One Analyst Expects Stocks To Soar After The Fed's Interest Rate Decision Wednesday
The Federal Reserve and Federal Open Market Committee are scheduled to announce July's interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. Although the expectations are for the Fed to keep rates unchanged, one analyst is projecting that stock prices will surge following the announcement.
CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks the probability of Fed decisions on interest rates, shows only a 3% chance the Fed does end up cutting rates by 25 basis points Wednesday afternoon. But Fundstrat's Tom Lee said that he still expects stocks to surge higher following the announcement.
The Call: Lee says that while market participants expect interest rates to come down in September, equity traders will not begin pricing that dynamic until the decision is made final. And if Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, confirms the Fed is planning on cutting rates in September, stocks could get a boost.
"The key premise is the Fed is likely to commit to a September rate cut of at least 25bp. A possibility of more than that is not necessary," Lee said in a note released Wednesday, according to Business Insider.
美联储和联邦公开市场委员会将于周三下午2点公布7月的利率决定。尽管预期美联储将保持利率不变，但一位分析师预测股票价格将在宣布后大涨。
芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具跟踪联邦基金利率决策的概率，显示Fed在周三下午降息25个基点的概率仅为3％。但Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，他仍预计股票将在宣布后大涨。
看涨：李龙说，虽然市场参与者预计利率将在9月份下降，但股票交易者将不会开始定价该动态，直到决策最终确定。如果美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三下午2:30发言时确认美联储计划在9月份削减利率，股票可能会得到提振。
“关键前提是美联储可能会至少削减25bp的9月利率。不需要更多的可能性，”李龙周三发布的一份报告在Business Insider上说。
"And while bond markets have priced in 100% probability of this, equity investors likely will not be convinced until the Fed affirms this as such."
“虽然债券市场已经定价了这100% 的可能性，但股票投资者可能不会被说服，直到美联储确认了这一点。”
Read Also: Fed Shouldn't Wait Until September: Poll Finds Nearly Half Want Rate Cuts Today
读也要：Fed不应等到九月：一项调查发现近一半的人希望今天降息。
What Are The Odds? The FedWatch tool shows a 100% chance the Fed will lower rates at its September meeting, with a .2% chance that rates are reduced by 75 basis points, a 10.1% chance that rates are reduced by 50 basis points and about a 90% chance rates are reduced by 25 basis points.
可能性高吗？FedWatch工具显示，美联储在9月份会议上降息的概率为100％，降息75个基点的概率为0.2％，降息50个基点的概率为10.1％，而机会降息25个基点的概率约为90％。
Why It Matters: Big tech companies like Microsoft, Apple and others have held up well despite higher interest rates. Other sectors like clean energy, tracked by the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NASDAQ:ICLN), have struggled in a high-interest rate environment, with the ETF trading down more than 8% year-to-date against the S&P 500 tracking ETF's gain of more than 16%.
为什么重要：尽管利率上升，微软、苹果和其他大型科技公司仍表现出色。其他部门，如iShares环球清洁能源ETF（纳斯达克：ICLN）所跟踪的清洁能源，在高利率环境下表现不佳，ETF今年迄今下跌超过8％，而S＆P 500跟踪ETF却上涨超过16％。
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