2024 OUTLOOK
The Company has reduced its full year guidance range as a result of a slower than expected recovery from the wildfires in Maui and moderating leisure transient demand, which is driven primarily by elevated international U.S. outbound travel relative to historic levels without a corresponding increase in international inbound travel.
Operating profit margin in 2024 is expected to be flat to 2023, while comparable hotel EBITDA margins are expected to decline compared to 2023, due to the impacts from the Maui wildfires and continued growth in wages, real estate taxes and insurance. At the midpoint of guidance, the impact from Maui operations is expected to be an approximate decline of 180 basis points in RevPAR and 120 basis points in Total RevPAR. When combined with the expected pre-wildfire Maui contribution, the total impact is estimated to be 250 basis points and 190 basis points, respectively. Net of the benefit of the business interruption gains relating to the wildfires, the year-over-year impact from Maui on net income and Adjusted EBITDAre for full year is expected to be a decline of $25 million, and on margins is expected to be a decline of approximately 20 basis points.
The guidance includes an estimated $12 million and $22 million of net income and Adjusted EBITDAre, respectively, which is expected from the recent acquisitions of 1 Hotel Central Park and The Ritz-Carlton O'ahu, Turtle Bay. Due to the timing of the acquisitions, the results for these two hotels will be included in the comparable hotel guidance starting in the third quarter. Alila Ventana Big Sur reopened on May 22, 2024, following its closure due to the collapse of a portion of Highway 1 in California in March 2024, but continues to be excluded from the comparable hotel set for 2024.
The Company anticipates its 2024 operating results as compared to 2023 will be in the following range:
| Current Full Year 2024 Guidance | Current Full Year 2024 Guidance Change vs. 2023 | Previous Full Year 2024 Guidance Change vs. 2023 | Change in Full Year 2024 Guidance to the Mid-Point | |
| Comparable hotel Total RevPAR | $344 to $351 | 0.2% to 2.1% | 2.7% to 4.6% | (250) bps |
| Comparable hotel RevPAR | $208 to $213 | (1.0)% to 1.0% | 2.0% to 4.0% | (300) bps |
| Total revenues under GAAP (in millions) | $5,619 to $5,725 | 5.8% to 7.8% | 6.4% to 8.3% | (60) bps |
| Operating profit margin under GAAP | 15.3% to 16.0% | (30) bps to 40 bps | (20) bps to 50 bps | (10) bps |
| Comparable hotel EBITDA margin | 29.1% to 29.6% | (110) bps to (60) bps | (80) bps to (30) bps | (30) bps |
Based upon the above parameters, the Company estimates its 2024 guidance as follows:
| Current Full Year 2024 Guidance | Previous Full Year 2024 Guidance | Change in Full Year 2024 Guidance to the Mid-Point | ||
| Net income (in millions) | $683 to $741 | $719 to $775 | $(35) | |
| Adjusted EBITDAre (in millions) | $1,615 to $1,675 | $1,640 to $1,700 | $(25) | |
| Diluted earnings per common share | $0.95 to $1.03 | $1.00 to $1.08 | $(0.05) | |
| NAREIT and Adjusted FFO per diluted share | $1.90 to $1.98 | $1.97 to $2.05 | $(0.07) | |
See the 2024 Forecast Schedules and the Notes to Financial Information for items that may affect forecast results and the Second Quarter 2024 Supplemental Financial Information for additional detail on the mid-point of full year 2024 guidance.