Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Shede Spirits Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600702) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
What Is Shede Spirits's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Shede Spirits had CN¥445.6m of debt, an increase on CN¥80.1m, over one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥3.08b in cash, so it actually has CN¥2.63b net cash.
How Healthy Is Shede Spirits' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Shede Spirits had liabilities of CN¥3.75b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥171.7m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥3.08b and CN¥916.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its total liabilities are just about perfectly matched by its shorter-term, liquid assets.
This state of affairs indicates that Shede Spirits' balance sheet looks quite solid, as its total liabilities are just about equal to its liquid assets. So while it's hard to imagine that the CN¥18.3b company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet. Simply put, the fact that Shede Spirits has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
While Shede Spirits doesn't seem to have gained much on the EBIT line, at least earnings remain stable for now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shede Spirits can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Shede Spirits has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Looking at the most recent three years, Shede Spirits recorded free cash flow of 29% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Summing Up
While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Shede Spirits has net cash of CN¥2.63b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we don't have any problem with Shede Spirits's use of debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Shede Spirits (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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