First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) just released its latest second-quarter results and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$1.0b, some 8.2% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$3.25, 20% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from First Solar's 35 analysts is for revenues of US$4.50b in 2024. This would reflect a solid 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 21% to US$13.56. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.52b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.59 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$282. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on First Solar, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$368 and the most bearish at US$190 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting First Solar's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 43% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect First Solar to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for First Solar going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for First Solar (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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