Zhitong Finance APP learned that Deutsche Bank Securities released a research report stating that Powell's press conference reinforced market expectations and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. According to calculations, the estimated price of gold for Q1 2024 is expected to be $2,694.3 per ounce.

Event: On August 1st, the FOMC meeting announced that the benchmark interest rate would remain unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

The Fed's interest rate resolution statement is basically in line with market expectations. In terms of interest rates, the FOMC meeting continued to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% for the eighth consecutive time, which was in line with market expectations. However, the Fed believes that there has been new progress in the past few months in achieving the inflation target of 2%, inflation has eased, but it is still "more or less" at a high level, and reiterated that interest rates will not be lowered until there is greater confidence in inflation. At the same time, the unemployment rate has risen, but it is still at a low level, and employment growth "has tended to be moderate".

Powell's press conference reinforced market expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. Regarding future policy interest rate changes, Powell said that it is reasonable for the market to feel that FOMC is closer to lowering interest rates. It is expected to choose to lower interest rates as soon as September, but must weigh the risks of acting too early or waiting too long. The scenario that can be imagined is that interest rates are cut zero to several times this year. Regarding future inflation changes, Powell said that the current inflation decline is better than in 2023 and the scope is broader. Due to obtaining good data, the Fed's confidence in the continued decline of inflation towards the 2% target has increased. There is no need to focus entirely on inflation, and the issue of inflation has not been resolved, but policy interest rate restrictions can begin to be gradually relaxed. In terms of market expectations, as of 10 am Beijing time on August 1, the 30-day federal fund 2412 reported 95.245, with a weekly increase of 0.03%, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased slightly.

Gold can look up to $2,600 per ounce. According to the calculations of Deutsche Bank's non-ferrous metals team, the estimated price of gold for Q1 2024 is expected to be $2,694.3 per ounce. Due to the relatively slow change of relevant economic variables in the short term during the calculation of the gold price, the reference price for gold can still be $2,600 per ounce. In addition, the reason why the actual gold price is lower than the calculated price is mainly due to the current contractionary monetary policy in the United States. If the Fed begins to cut interest rates in the future, that is, if the US monetary policy begins to shift, it is expected that the price of gold will accelerate towards the calculated price, and the COMEX price of gold can look up to $2,600 per ounce.

Investment advice: The price of gold is expected to continue to rise. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Yulong Gold, Hunan Gold Corporation and Shandong Humon Smelting.

Risk warning: global gold production has increased significantly, large-scale exploration and discovery of gold-easy resources, and unexpected changes in US monetary policy.