According to Guoyuan International Research Institute, major global smartphone manufacturers have laid out AI mobile phones, stimulating the recovery of industry demand. In Q2 2024, the global smart phone market achieved three consecutive quarters of growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, reaching 0.288 billion units. Canalys predicts that the penetration rate of global AI mobile phones in 2024 will reach 16%, and it will reach 54% by 2028. According to Counterpoint data, the proportion of smart phones with GenAI function in the global smart phone sales in Q1 2024 has increased from 1.3% in the previous quarter to 6%, indicating that the GenAI phone function has gained consumer favor and has greater development space in the future.
The bank stated that whether it is AI models or hardware such as chips, they are still in the process of rapid iteration and evolution, so the AI functions that can be implemented on mobile phones are becoming stronger and stronger. The wave of replacing traditional smart phones with AI mobile phones will drive the industry to show relatively fast growth in the medium and long term, and there is no end in sight to industry growth at present. The bank believes that in this process, mobile phone leaders who can maintain the advanced nature of large models and make consumers stick to them, such as Apple (AAPL.O) and Xiaomi Group-W (01810), are expected to continue to maintain their market advantage; meanwhile, leading manufacturers who can provide core hardware, such as Qualcomm (QCOM.O), and key links in the industry chain, such as BYD Electronic (00285), AAC Tech (02018), Sunny Optical (02382), and Q Tech (01478), are worth long-term attention.