The JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (NASDAQ:JAKK) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 35%. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 20% is also fairly reasonable.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, JAKKS Pacific's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.9x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 18x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For example, consider that JAKKS Pacific's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Is There Any Growth For JAKKS Pacific?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, JAKKS Pacific would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 63% decrease to the company's bottom line. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 14% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.
With this information, we can see why JAKKS Pacific is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on to something they believe will continue to trail the bourse.
What We Can Learn From JAKKS Pacific's P/E?
The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift JAKKS Pacific's P/E close to the market median. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that JAKKS Pacific maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its recent three-year growth being lower than the wider market forecast, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - JAKKS Pacific has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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