OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:OSW) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.7% to US$15.91 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Revenues were US$225m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.15 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for OneSpaWorld Holdings from five analysts is for revenues of US$885.5m in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 18% to US$0.60. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$875.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.60 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$18.75, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values OneSpaWorld Holdings at US$22.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that OneSpaWorld Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while OneSpaWorld Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for OneSpaWorld Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that OneSpaWorld Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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