Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Omnicell, Inc. (NASDAQ:OMCL)
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Omnicell, Inc. (NASDAQ:OMCL)
Key Insights
主要见解
- The projected fair value for Omnicell is US$48.35 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of US$38.85 suggests Omnicell is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Analyst price target for OMCL is US$33.57 which is 31% below our fair value estimate
- 基于两阶段自由现金流对股权的预测公平价值为Omnicell的目标价值为48.35美元
- 以38.85美元的股价来看,Omnicell股票可能接近其公允价值
- OMCL的分析师目标价为33.57美元,比我们的公允价值预估低31%
Does the August share price for Omnicell, Inc. (NASDAQ:OMCL) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
奥姆尼赛尔公司(NASDAQ:OMCL)的8月股价是否反映了其真实价值?今天,我们将通过折现现金流估算其股票的内在价值。这次,我们将使用折现现金流模型。尽管它看起来可能相当复杂,但实际上没有那么复杂。
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
我们要警告的是,有许多方法可以对一个公司进行估值,并且与DCF一样,每种技术在某些情况下都有优势和劣势。如果您仍然对这种类型的估值有一些燃烧的问题,请查看Simply Wall St的分析模型。
The Calculation
计算方法
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们使用所谓的2阶段模型,这意味着我们有两个不同的现金流增长期。一般来说,第一个阶段是高增长,第二个阶段是低增长。在第一个阶段,我们需要估计未来10年业务的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的预测,但当这些不可用时,我们就会从上一个估计值或报告值推断出上一个自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流下降的公司将减缓缩小速度,而增长的自由现金流的公司在此期间增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映增长倾向于在早期比在后期更为缓慢。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
DCF的核心概念是未来的每一美元都比现在的每一美元更不值钱,因此我们将这些未来的现金流贴现到当今的价值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$41.4m | US$63.6m | US$81.8m | US$95.6m | US$106.0m | US$114.8m | US$122.3m | US$128.8m | US$134.6m | US$139.8m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 10.79% | Est @ 8.31% | Est @ 6.56% | Est @ 5.35% | Est @ 4.49% | Est @ 3.89% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | US$38.7 | US$55.4 | US$66.5 | US$72.5 | US$75.0 | US$75.8 | US$75.4 | US$74.1 | US$72.3 | US$70.1 |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
杠杆自由现金流 ($, 百万) | 4140万美元 | 6360万美元 | 8180万美元 | 95.6m美元 | 1.06亿美元 | 1.148亿美元 | 1.223亿美元。 | 1.288亿美元 | 1年自由现金流(FCF)=134.6百万美元 | 1.398亿美元 |
增长率估计来源 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | 10.79%的估计值。 | 估值增长率为8.31% | 预计 @ 6.56%。 | 以5.35%的估值增长率为估计值 | 预计增长率为4.49% | 估计增长率3.89% |
现值($,百万)按7.2%折现 | 38.7 | 55.4美元 | 66.5美元 | 72.5美元 | 75.0美元 | 75.8 美元 | 75.4美元 | 74.1美元 | 72.3 美元 | 70.1美元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$676m
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估计的自由现金流增长率)
10年现金流的现值(PVCF)= 6.76亿美元
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
第二阶段也称为终止价值,即企业在第一阶段之后的现金流量。使用戈登增长模型,以未来年增长率为2.5%的10年政府债券收益率的5年平均值来计算终止价值。我们以7.2%的股权成本折现终止现金流到今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$140m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.5%) = US$3.1b
终止价值(TV)= FCF2034×(1 + g)÷(r - g)= 14亿美元×(1 + 2.5%)÷(7.2% - 2.5%)= 31亿美元
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.1b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= US$1.5b
终止价值的现值(PVTV)= TV /(1 + r)10= 31亿美元÷(1 + 7.2%)10= 15亿美元
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.2b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$38.9, the company appears about fair value at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
总价值是未来十年现金流折现值和折现的终止价值之和,这在本例中为22亿美元。在最后一步,我们将权益价值除以已发行股票的数量。相对于当前股价38.9美元,该公司似乎以20%的折扣大致相当于公允价值。但是,估值是不精确的工具,就像望远镜一样——稍微移动一些角度,就会进入不同的星系。请记住这一点。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240802/0-708557008e98eaf4b51eb4d0baf965bf-0-caa287a81e116caf8d2a31b6da75112a.png/big)
The Assumptions
假设
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Omnicell as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.129. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
以上计算非常依赖于两个假设,一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。您不必同意这些输入,但我建议您重新计算并尝试进行调整。DCF还未考虑所在行业的潜在周期性,或者企业未来的资本需求,因此它不能全面反映公司的潜在表现。考虑到我们正在考虑Omnicell的潜在股东,所以使用的是股权成本而不是资本成本(或资本加权平均成本,WACC)进行贴现。在这个计算中,我们使用了基于行业可比公司的平均贝塔值为1.129的负债财务贝塔。贝塔是反映市场风险的度量,而我们通过行业最大可比公司的平均贝塔值来得到贝塔,这是一个合理的稳定企业负债财务贝塔的范围为0.8-2.0之间。
Moving On:
接下来:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Omnicell, we've compiled three additional elements you should assess:
估值是构建投资论题的一个方面,并不是为公司进行全面分析的唯一依据。DCF模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,它应该被看作是指导“这支股票是被低估还是被高估需要满足什么假设?” 如果一家公司增长速度不同,或者其股权成本或无风险利率急剧变化,输出看起来可能完全不同。对于Omnicell,我们还编制了三个您应该评估的额外要素:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Omnicell .
- Future Earnings: How does OMCL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- 风险:因此,您应该注意到我们已经发现的1个Omnicell警告标志。
- 未来收益:OMCL的增长率如何与其同行和整个市场相比?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表进行互动,深入了解未来几年的分析师一致预期数。
- 其他高质量选择:你喜欢一个好的多面手吗?浏览我们的高质量股票交互列表,了解还有哪些你可能错过的好东西!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其对每只美国股票的折现现金流计算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。