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Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical (SHSE:600267) A Risky Investment?

Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical (SHSE:600267) A Risky Investment?

海正藥業(SHSE:600267)是一個有風險的投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  08/02 18:09

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600267) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過:“波動性遠非風險的代名詞。”因此當你考慮一個股票的風險時,需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會拖垮一家公司。重要的是,浙江海正藥業股份有限公司(SHSE:600267)的確承擔有債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否會使公司變得風險增加。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時有危險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

直到企業遇到新的資本或自由現金流問題,債務才會幫助企業。資本主義的重要過程之一是“創意毀滅”,銀行家無情地清算失敗的企業。然而,更常見(但仍然痛苦)的情況是企業不得不低價募集新的股本,從而永久性地稀釋股東的股份。當然,債務對於企業是一種重要的工具,特別是對於資本密集型企業。在考慮公司的負債水平時,第一步是考慮其現金和債務。

What Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's Net Debt?

浙江海正藥業的淨債務是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical had debt of CN¥5.35b at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥5.98b over a year. However, it also had CN¥1.57b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥3.78b.

下圖是浙江海正藥業股份有限公司在2024年3月末的債務情況,相比一年前的598億元人民幣,它們的債務減少到了535億元人民幣。然而,它們有157億元人民幣的現金,所以其淨債務爲378億元人民幣。

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SHSE:600267 Debt to Equity History August 2nd 2024
SHSE:600267債務與股東權益歷史記錄於2024年8月2日

How Healthy Is Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's Balance Sheet?

浙江海正藥業的資產負債表狀況如何?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical had liabilities of CN¥7.21b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥1.93b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.57b as well as receivables valued at CN¥2.42b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥5.15b.

從最新的資產負債表數據來看,我們可以看到浙江海正藥業在12個月內應付的負債爲721億元人民幣,在12個月後應付的負債爲193億元人民幣,並抵消了157億元人民幣的現金和242億元人民幣的應收賬款。因此,其負債超過了其現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和515億元人民幣。

Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical has a market capitalization of CN¥9.14b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

浙江海正藥業的市值爲914億元人民幣,因此如果需要,它可能非常有可能籌集資金來改善其資產負債表。然而,仍然有必要仔細研究它償還債務的能力。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

通過查看公司的淨債務與利息、稅、折舊、攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息費用(利息覆蓋率)可以衡量一個公司的債務負擔與收益能力。因此,我們考慮將債務與有無計算折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對比。

Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's net debt is 3.0 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 1k times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. Importantly, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 79% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

浙江海正藥業的淨債務是其EBITDA的3.0倍,這是一個相當大但仍然是合理的槓桿負債量。但它的EBIT的利息費用僅爲0.1萬元左右,這意味着公司維持這個債務水平並沒有花費太高的成本,即使低成本無法持續,這也是一個好兆頭。重要的是,浙江海正藥業的EBIT在過去十二個月中驚人地下降了79%。如果這種下降持續下去,償還債務將比在素食主義者大會上售賣鵝肝更難。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到了有關債務的大部分信息。但是最終業務的未來盈利能力將決定浙江海正藥業能否隨着時間的推移加強資產負債表。因此,如果您關注未來,可以查看這個免費的分析師利潤預測報告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.

但我們的最後考慮也很重要,因爲公司不能用紙面利潤支付債務;它需要冷硬的現金。因此,我們需要清楚地了解EBIT是否導致對應的自由現金流。令股東滿意的是,過去三年中,浙江海正藥業實際上比EBIT產生了更多的自由現金流。在保持與出借人良好關係時,沒有比進賬現金更好的事情了。

Our View

我們的觀點

We feel some trepidation about Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical's difficulty EBIT growth rate, but we've got positives to focus on, too. For example, its interest cover and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow give us some confidence in its ability to manage its debt. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

我們對浙江海正藥業EBIT增長率的困難感到有些擔憂,但我們也有一些可以關注的積極方面。例如,它的利息保障倍數和EBIT轉自由現金流的能力讓我們對它管理債務的能力有些信心。綜合考慮上述所有方面,我們認爲由於其債務的緣故,浙江海正藥業是一項有些風險的投資,這不一定是壞事,因爲槓桿作用可以提高股本回報,但這是需要注意的事情。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是一個顯而易見的起點。但是,最終,每個公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。我們已經識別出了浙江海正藥業的1個警示信號,並且理解這些警示信號應該成爲您的投資過程的一部分。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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