With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 9x in Hong Kong, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about China International Capital Corporation Limited's (HKG:3908) P/E ratio of 8.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, China International Capital's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like China International Capital's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 42% decrease to the company's bottom line. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 45% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 28% per annum as estimated by the nine analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 15% per annum, which is noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we find it interesting that China International Capital is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently some shareholders are skeptical of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
The Key Takeaway
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of China International Capital's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for China International Capital with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
If you're unsure about the strength of China International Capital's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com