Arm Holdings Plc Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Arm Holdings Plc Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
A week ago, Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ:ARM) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.3% to hit US$939m. Arm Holdings reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$0.21, which was a notable 19% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
一週前,Arm Holdings plc (納斯達克:ARM)發佈了強勁的第一季度業績數據,這可能會導致股票的重新定價。整體來說,這是一個積極的結果,營業收入超出預期33%,達到9.39億美元。Arm Holdings報告的每股收益爲0.21美元,比分析師預測高出19%。根據此結果,分析師更新了其收益模型,了解他們是否認爲公司前景發生了重大變化,還是像往常一樣的業務。因此,我們收集了最新的盈利預測,看看估計值預示着明年的業務發展情況。
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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Arm Holdings from 31 analysts is for revenues of US$3.98b in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 111% to US$0.86. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.86 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
考慮到最新結果,31位分析師對Arm Holdings的最新共識是2025年營業收入達到38億美元。如果達成,這將意味着過去12個月其營業收入實現了堅實的14%增長。預計每股收益將躍升111%至0.86美元。在本次盈利報告之前,分析師預測2025年營業收入爲40億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲0.86美元。因此,儘管分析師更新了其預測,但業務預期並沒有發生重大變化。
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 7.5% to US$134. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arm Holdings at US$200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$66.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
隨着分析師重新確認其營收和收益預測,令人驚訝的是價格目標上漲了7.5%,達到了134美元。看來他們以前對企業是否能夠達到預期存在一些懷疑。還有另一種考慮價格目標的方法,那就是看看分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲廣泛的估計範圍可能暗示對業務可能結果存在不同的觀點。目前,最看好的分析師將Arm Holdings的價值定爲每股200美元,而最看淡的則將其定爲66.00美元。正如您所看到的,估計範圍很大,最看淡的估值不到最看好估值的一半,這表明分析師們對分析該業務的業績有着截然不同的看法。因此,基於共識價格目標做出決策可能並不是一個好主意,因爲畢竟只是這些廣泛估計的平均值。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Arm Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 19% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 31% growth over the last year. Compare this to the 113 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Arm Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
我們可以通過更大的範疇來看待這些估計,比如將預測與過去業績相比較,以及相對於行業中其他公司,預測是否更爲看好或看淡。我們要強調的是,Arm Holdings的營收增長預計將放緩,預計到2025年底的年化增長率爲19%,遠低於過去一年的31%增長率。與此同時,業內113家有分析師關注的公司預計每年收入增長18%。考慮到預期增長的減緩,看起來Arm Holdings的增長預計將與整個行業以大致相同的速度增長。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
最明顯的結論是,最近業務前景沒有發生重大變化,分析師保持其盈利預測穩定,與先前的估計相一致。值得高興的是,業務的營收預測沒有發生實質性變化,仍然預計將與整個行業同步增長。價格目標也有了不錯的增長,分析師顯然認爲企業的內在價值正在提高。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arm Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
在此思路的基礎上,我們認爲企業的長期前景要比明年的收益更爲重要。在Simply Wall St,我們有Arm Holdings的全套分析師預測,可延伸至2027年。你可以在此免費查看他們。
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Arm Holdings you should be aware of.
當然,您應該始終考慮風險。例如,我們已經發現Arm Holdings有1個警告標誌,您應該注意。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。