It's been a mediocre week for AMETEK, Inc. (NYSE:AME) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$153 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in 2.6% below expectations, at US$1.7b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$1.45 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, AMETEK's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$7.08b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.1% to US$5.93. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$7.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.97 in 2024. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The average price target was steady at US$187even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on AMETEK, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$215 and the most bearish at US$165 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the AMETEK's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.6% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 7.9% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.0% annually. So although AMETEK is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AMETEK. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for AMETEK going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of AMETEK's balance sheet, and whether we think AMETEK is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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