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What China New Consumption Group Limited's (HKG:8275) 38% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 4 20:03

China New Consumption Group Limited (HKG:8275) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 38% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. But the last month did very little to improve the 66% share price decline over the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about China New Consumption Group's P/S ratio of 0.5x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Construction industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.3x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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SEHK:8275 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry August 5th 2024

What Does China New Consumption Group's Recent Performance Look Like?

China New Consumption Group has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. Perhaps the expectation moving forward is that the revenue growth will track in line with the wider industry for the near term, which has kept the P/S subdued. If not, then at least existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on China New Consumption Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is China New Consumption Group's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like China New Consumption Group's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 3.6%. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 1.3% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 10% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that China New Consumption Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From China New Consumption Group's P/S?

China New Consumption Group's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

The fact that China New Consumption Group currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with China New Consumption Group (including 2 which shouldn't be ignored).

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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