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The Past Three-year Earnings Decline for XiangcaiLtd (SHSE:600095) Likely Explains Shareholders Long-term Losses

The Past Three-year Earnings Decline for XiangcaiLtd (SHSE:600095) Likely Explains Shareholders Long-term Losses

香菜股份有限公司(SHSE:600095)過去三年的收益下降很可能解釋了股東的長期損失。
Simply Wall St ·  2024/08/05 08:26

One simple way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. In contrast individual stocks will provide a wide range of possible returns, and may fall short. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Xiangcai Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600095) shareholders, since the share price is down 34% in the last three years, less than the market decline of around 27%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 31% lower in that time.

受益於上漲的市場,一個簡單的方法是買入指數基金。相比之下,個別股票將提供廣泛的可能回報,並可能表現不佳。不幸的是,這已經是長揸湘財股份股票的情況,自過去三年以來,股價下跌了34%,而市場下跌約27%。最近一年內股價跌幅更是高達31%。

While the stock has risen 4.3% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

雖然此股過去一週上漲了4.3%,但長期股東仍然虧損,讓我們看看基本面可以告訴我們什麼。

Given that XiangcaiLtd only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.

考慮到湘財股份在過去十二個月中僅獲得微薄的收益,因此我們將關注營業收入以衡量其業務發展。一般來說,我們認爲這種公司與虧損的股票更具可比性,因爲實際利潤非常低。對於股東來說,要確信公司將大幅增長利潤,就必須增加營業收入。

Over the last three years, XiangcaiLtd's revenue dropped 24% per year. That means its revenue trend is very weak compared to other loss making companies. On the face of it we'd posit the share price fall of 10% compound, over three years is well justified by the fundamental deterioration. It would probably be worth asking whether the company can fund itself to profitability. Of course, it is possible for businesses to bounce back from a revenue drop - but we'd want to see that before getting interested.

在過去的三年中,湘財股份的營業收入每年下降24%。這意味着其營收趨勢與其他虧損企業相比非常薄弱。從表面上看,我們認爲逐年下跌10%的股價下降是基本面惡化的充分理由。也許有必要問公司是否能夠資助自己實現盈利。當然,企業有可能從營業收入下降中反彈,但在開始感興趣之前,我們想看到這一點。

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

下面的圖表顯示了收益和營收隨時間的變化情況(通過單擊圖像揭示確切的值)。

big
SHSE:600095 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 5th 2024
2024年8月5日SHSE:600095公司盈利和營業收入增長

We know that XiangcaiLtd has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think XiangcaiLtd will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

我們知道湘財股份最近已經改善了其底線,但未來會有什麼情況呢?因此,查看分析師認爲湘財股份將來會獲得的盈利(自由利潤預測)是非常有意義的。

What About Dividends?

那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, XiangcaiLtd's TSR for the last 3 years was -32%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

在考慮投資回報率時,重要的是要考慮總股東回報率(TSR)與股價回報率之間的差異。TSR是一種回報計算,考慮了現金股息的價值(假設收到的任何股息都是再投資的)和任何折扣的資本增發和分拆的計算價值。因此,對於支付豐富股息的公司,TSR通常比股價回報率高得多。事實上,湘財股份過去3年的TSR爲-32%,超過了前面提到的股價回報。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!

A Different Perspective

不同的觀點

We regret to report that XiangcaiLtd shareholders are down 31% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 19%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 2% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for XiangcaiLtd you should be aware of.

我們遺憾地報告,即使包括股息在內,湘財股份的股東今年也虧損了31%。不幸的是,這比更廣泛市場下跌19%還要糟糕。但是,股票價格可能僅僅受到更廣泛的市場擔憂的影響。如果有好機會,關注基本面或許是值得的。令人遺憾的是,去年的表現已經結束了糟糕的運行,長期股價疲軟可能是一種不好的跡象,儘管與此相反的投資者可能希望研究這隻股票以期望出現扭轉。 我認爲通過長期股價作爲業績的代理來觀察很有趣。但是爲了真正獲得洞察力,我們還需要考慮其他信息。 具體來說:我們注意到有一項警告標誌標記了湘財股份的股票,您應該注意。

Of course XiangcaiLtd may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

當然,湘財股份可能不是最好的股票購買選擇。因此,您可能希望查看這個增長類股票的免費收藏。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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