GlobalData, a global data analytics company, recently released a report stating that Zepbound, a weight loss drug launched by US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY.US), which is widely welcomed by consumers worldwide and has been hailed as 'a miracle weight loss drug,' may soon face its fiercest competition with Viking Therapeutics' (VKTX.US) weight loss drug under its leading industry index, VK2735, which is expected to be launched in the United States in the coming years, whose main ingredient is similar to Lilly's tirzepatide.

This latest prediction was made after Viking, a clinical-stage biotech company, announced its second-quarter results last month, stating that it will accelerate the clinical trial schedule of VK2735, a weight loss drug based on dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist components. That component is similar to Lilly's Zepbound, which is also known as 'tirzepatide' (Tirzepatide).

Lilly's core effective ingredient for weight loss is Tirzepatide, while Novo Nordisk's (NVO.US) Ozempic and Wegovy effective components are semaglutide. In clinical practice, doctors often consider using Lilly's Mounjaro or Novo Nordisk's Ozempic for weight loss and blood sugar reduction, especially for patients with both diabetes and obesity.

Tirzepatide and semaglutide are new drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and for weight management, but they have significantly different mechanisms of action, molecular structures, and effects. In a high-profile study, Lilly's tirzepatide was found to have a more significant effect on weight management than Novo Nordisk's semaglutide.

Tirzepatide is a dual-receptor agonist that can simultaneously activate GLP-1 and GIP receptors. This dual mechanism of action may make it more effective in regulating blood sugar and body weight than a single GLP-1 receptor agonist. Semaglutide is a GLP-1 receptor agonist that regulates blood sugar and body weight by mimicking the action of GLP-1 hormone. Therefore, Tirzepatide is a synthetic peptide that combines the characteristics of GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonists, while Semaglutide is a long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist that mimics natural GLP-1 hormones but has its half-life extended through chemical modification.

According to the smart finance app, after receiving written feedback from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Viking, headquartered in San Diego, California, said that VK2735, which had positive mid-term data earlier this year, will enter Phase III clinical trials. Compared with another mid-term trial, the latest update marked an acceleration of Viking's timeline for developing weight loss drugs.

'Assuming VK2735 enters Phase III clinical trials next year, it may become one of the next mainstream weight loss therapies to enter the market, and it will compete directly with Lilly's Tirzepatide because of their similar mechanisms of action,' said Costa Alzate, a healthcare industry analyst at GlobalData.

Alzate added that Viking is expected to meet with the FDA later this year to discuss the plan. 'Direct entry into the crucial Phase III clinical trial may lead to entering the market earlier than expected, saving more than hundreds of thousands of dollars in costs.'

However, new weight loss drug developers who are about to be launched may face new challenges as their two main competitors, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, seek to expand their obesity treatment drug labels.

For example, Novo Nordisk has successfully obtained formal approval from the US Food and Drug Administration to push its obesity treatment drug Wegovy into the cardiovascular treatment market to reduce the likelihood of cardiovascular diseases such as heart attacks in overweight and obese patients.

After Tirzepatide demonstrated similar cardiovascular treatment benefits in an important Phase III trial, Lilly said last week that it plans to meet with US regulators later this year and submit relevant data.

'Whether new treatments entering the obesity market will follow Lilly and Novo Nordisk's approach of pursuing label expansions or choose other strategies to enhance their competitiveness, which will be a very interesting thing,' Alzate summed up.

Weight loss drugs are popular worldwide, and the future market is incredibly broad.

According to the latest survey data released by the well-known health research institution KFF, every one in eight American adults has tried new diabetes and anti-obesity drugs that increase rapidly in recent years, including Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Lilly's Mounjaro, highlighting the tremendous pace of the popularization of these treatments among adults. The KFF survey also showed that about half of those who had tried injection of these weight loss drugs are still taking them. This new opinion poll was conducted at the end of April through sampling surveys of nearly 1,500 adults via the Internet and telephone in English and Spanish.

Mounjaro and Zepbound, the weight loss drugs under Eli Lilly and Co, as well as Ozempic and Wegovy under Novo Nordisk, are deeply involved in obesity and diabetes groups all over the United States and the world. In the United States, the incidence of diabetes and obesity has been steadily increasing for decades.

According to research data from Bloomberg Intelligence, the market size of such weight loss drugs is expected to reach at least $80 billion by 2030. Goldman Sachs, a major Wall Street firm, is even more optimistic, with a forecast report showing that annual sales of the global anti-obesity drug market could increase to around $130 billion by 2030, while annual sales in early 2023 were only $6 billion. The World Obesity Federation (WOF) expects that by 2035, more than 4 billion people (more than half of the world's population) may have degrees of obesity.