Since Federal Reserve Chairman testified on Capitol Hill on July 11, the U.S. stock market has been unstable.
On July 24, we saw a 'Black Wednesday' with the S&P 500 dropping 2.3% and the Nasdaq plunging 3.64%—the worst since the AI boom began. ![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240805/41776430-0-63d74e5fad1c97f2a8dc75bce41ffa9f.png/big)
After a brief stabilization this week, the U.S. stock market resumed its downward trend on Thursday, August 1, with the Nasdaq index falling more than 2%.
Many investors are feeling blindsided and unsure of how to react. It's okay—let's take a moment to calm down and reassess our strategy.
Here are common responses to a market downturn:
1. Sell to cut losses
2. Implement hedging strategies
3. Stay put
4. Buy more or bottom-fish
Which one should you choose? Before making any decisions, we need to do two things: analyze the market outlook and evaluate our own situation.
Market outlook
The market is flooded with analyses on the reasons behind the downturn, which can be viewed from both short-term and mid-term perspectives.
Short-term triggers
The immediate catalysts might be the earnings reports from tech stocks. While Apple and Meta beat the market's expectations, the financial reports of Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have raised doubts among investors about whether significant investments in AI are worthwhile.
Mid-term concerns
From a mid-term perspective, the market is mainly worried about the U.S. elections, economic slowdown, and doubts about the pace of AI commercialization—fears that resurface every time AI stocks decline.
While these concerns are valid, the core issue might be the previous significant market gains, prompting profit-taking and a needed correction.
Before the rate cut hits the ground in September, the market can possibly take advantage of the negative factors to complete a round of kills, and then go back to speculating on the rate cut.
Want to bottom-fishing?
For investors considering bottom-fishing, the most important thing is to determine the turning point of this pullback.
A useful tool is the Fibonacci retracement, which is helpful to identify support levels during a pullback.
For example, Nvidia's first support is around $117 (23.6% retracement) and the second is around $102 (38.2% retracement). The stock has already breached the first level and is trending towards the second. If it stabilizes around $102, it could be a buying opportunity.
For more on using Fibonacci retracements, refer to this course: What are Fibonacci Retracements?
As we all know, predicting the market is always challenging, as anything can happen. If you lack confidence in the economy, elections, corporate earnings, or AI development, you should rule out bottom-fishing and consider the other strategies first. At this point, it's essential to evaluate your situation before making a decision.
Ask Yourself These Questions
1. Am I losing money?
- Warren Buffett advised, "Rule No. 1: never lose money; Rule No. 2: never forget rule No. 1."
- If your stocks are nearing or starting to incur losses, sell immediately to protect your capital. It's better to miss an opportunity than to get stuck in a losing position.
2. Why did I buy this stock?
- Speculative investors: If you bought for short-term gains, exit quickly if the trend turns negative. Don’t switch to a long-term view just because the market is down.
- Long-term investors: Stay calm and assess if your original reasons for investing have changed. If they haven’t, continue to hold despite market panic.
3. Can I stay calm if the market moves against me?
Be prepared mentally for market fluctuations. One or two mistakes aren’t disastrous; the key is to stay rational.
- If you’re struggling: Consider selling and taking a break. Don’t rush back if the market rebounds, as this could lead to emotional decisions and further losses.
- If you’re holding but sensitive to fluctuations: Consider using hedging tools to reduce short-term risks and stay calm.
Hedging tools
If you already own stocks and don't want to sell at a loss, consider these hedging strategies:
1. Options Hedging
- Covered Call: Sell call options on your stocks. If the stock declines or remains flat, you earn the option premium. However, this offers limited protection in a significant downturn.
- Protective Put: Buy put options on your stocks for greater protection, but at a higher cost.
To find options on moomoo, go to Markets> Options
2. Inverse ETFs
Consider adding inverse ETFs to your portfolio. These ETFs rise as the market falls. $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ and $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF (SOXS.US)$ are good for tech-heavy portfolios. Be cautious with position sizes, as these ETFs will fall if the market rebounds, potentially leading to losses.
To find inverse ETFs on moomoo, go to Go to Markets> ETF> Index ETF> VIX> Inverse ETF
3. VIX ETFs
During sharp market declines, the VIX (volatility index) spikes. Trade VIX through ETFs like VXX and UVXY, which surged recently. These are suitable for short-term trading only, as long-term holding is risky.
To find these ETFs on moomoo: go to Markets> ETF> Index ETF> VIX
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$
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自美联储主席7月11日在国会山作证以来,美国股市一直不稳定。
7月24日,我们看到了 “黑色星期三”,标准普尔500指数下跌2.3%,纳斯达克指数下跌3.64%,这是自人工智能繁荣开始以来最糟糕的一次。![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240805/41776430-0-63d74e5fad1c97f2a8dc75bce41ffa9f.png/big)
在本周短暂稳定之后,美国股市于8月1日星期四恢复下跌趋势,纳斯达克指数下跌超过2%。
许多投资者感到被蒙蔽了双眼,不确定如何应对。没关系——让我们花点时间冷静下来,重新评估我们的战略。
以下是对市场低迷的常见反应:
1。卖出以减少损失
2。实施套期保值策略
3.待在原地
4。买更多或者是底层鱼
你应该选择哪一个?在做出任何决定之前,我们需要做两件事:分析市场前景和评估我们自己的情况。
市场展望
市场上充斥着对经济衰退背后原因的分析,可以从短期和中期的角度来看待这些分析。
短期触发因素
直接的催化剂可能是科技股的收益报告。尽管苹果和Meta超出了市场的预期,但谷歌、微软和亚马逊的财务报告使投资者怀疑对人工智能的重大投资是否值得。
中期担忧
从中期角度来看,市场主要担心美国大选、经济放缓以及对人工智能商业化步伐的疑虑——每当人工智能股票下跌时,这种担忧就会再次浮出水面。
尽管这些担忧是合理的,但核心问题可能是此前的大幅市场上涨,这促使获利回吐和必要的修正。
在9月份降息开始之前,市场可能会利用负面因素完成一轮的击杀,然后重新开始猜测降息。
想海底钓鱼吗?
对于考虑抄底的投资者来说,最重要的是确定这种回调的转折点。
一个有用的工具是斐波那契回调,它有助于在回调期间确定支撑位。
例如,英伟达的第一个支撑位在117美元左右(回撤幅度为23.6%),第二个支撑位在102美元左右(回撤幅为38.2%)。该股已经突破了第一级,并有向第二水平的趋势。如果它稳定在102美元附近,则可能是一个买入机会。
有关使用斐波那契回调线的更多信息,请参阅本课程: 什么是斐波那契回调?
众所周知,预测市场总是具有挑战性的,因为任何事情都有可能发生。如果你对经济、选举、企业收益或人工智能发展缺乏信心,你应该排除抄底的可能性,并首先考虑其他策略。此时,在做出决定之前评估自己的情况至关重要。
问自己这些问题
1。我在亏钱吗?
-沃伦·巴菲特建议:“第一条规则:永远不要亏钱;第二条规则:永远不要忘记第一条规则。”
-如果您的股票接近或开始蒙受损失,请立即卖出以保护您的资本。错过机会总比陷入失败的境地好。
2。我为什么要买这只股票?
-投机性投资者:如果您以短期收益买入,则在趋势转为负数时迅速退出。不要仅仅因为市场下跌就转向长期观点。
-长期投资者:保持冷静,评估您最初的投资原因是否发生了变化。如果没有,尽管市场出现恐慌,但仍继续持有。
3.如果市场不利于我,我能保持冷静吗?
为市场波动做好心理准备。一两个错误并不是灾难性的;关键是保持理性。
-如果你在苦苦挣扎:考虑卖出然后休息一下。如果市场反弹,不要着急,因为这可能会导致情绪化的决定和进一步的损失。
-如果您持有但对波动敏感:考虑使用对冲工具来降低短期风险并保持冷静。
套期保值工具
如果你已经拥有股票并且不想亏本卖出,可以考虑以下对冲策略:
1。期权套期保值
-担保看涨:卖出股票的看涨期权。如果股票下跌或保持持平,您将获得期权溢价。但是,在经济严重低迷时期,这提供的保护是有限的。
-保护性看跌期权:买入股票的看跌期权以获得更大的保障,但成本更高。
要在 moomoo 上查找选项,请前往 市场> 选项
2。反向交易所买卖基金
考虑在您的投资组合中添加反向ETF。这些ETF随着市场的下跌而上涨。$3倍做空纳指ETF-ProShares (SQQQ.US)$ 和$3倍做空半导体ETF-Direxion (SOXS.US)$ 适合以科技为主的投资组合。谨慎对待头寸规模,因为如果市场反弹,这些ETF将下跌,可能导致损失。
要在 moomoo 上查找反向 ETF,请前往 市场> ETF> 指数ETF> VIX> 反向ETF
3.VIX ETF
在市场急剧下跌期间,VIX(波动率指数)飙升。通过最近飙升的VXX和UVXY等交易所买卖基金交易VIX。这些仅适用于短期交易,因为长期持有存在风险。
要在 moomoo 上找到这些 ETF:前往 市场> ETF> 指数ETF> VIX
$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$ $纳斯达克综合指数 (.IXIC.US)$ $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ $谷歌-C (GOOG.US)$
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