Is Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd (SZSE:000893) A Risky Investment?
Is Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd (SZSE:000893) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000893) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
傳奇基金經理李錄(得到查理·芒格的支持)曾說:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動性,而是你是否將遭受永久性的資本損失。”當我們考慮一家公司有多大的風險時,我們總是喜歡看看它使用的債務,因爲債務過載可能會導致破產。 我們注意到亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司(SZSE: 000893)確實在其資產負債表上有債務。 但股東們是否應該擔心它使用的債務?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但是如果企業無力償還債權人的債務,那麼它就處於他們的掌握之中。在最壞的情況下,如果企業無法償付債權人的債務,它可能會破產。然而,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以便宜的股價稀釋股東來控制債務。當然,很多公司利用債務來資助增長,而不會出現任何負面後果。考慮企業使用多少債務時,首要考慮的是其現金和債務的總量。
How Much Debt Does Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd Carry?
亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司承擔了多少債務?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd had CN¥1.84b of debt, an increase on none, over one year. However, it also had CN¥564.4m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥1.27b.
您可以單擊下面的圖表查看歷史數據,但是數據顯示截至2024年3月,亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司負債總額爲18.4億元人民幣,相比上年沒有增加。另外,它也有人民幣56440萬元的現金,因此淨債務爲12.7億元人民幣。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240806/0-4552f1ad8558d6982df33179f23bd15e-0-32043842397928771c5b560c2bbe426a.png/big)
How Healthy Is Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd's Balance Sheet?
亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司的資產負債表狀況如何?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd had liabilities of CN¥2.08b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.64b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥564.4m in cash and CN¥127.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥3.04b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司短期內到期的負債爲20.8億元人民幣,之後到期的負債爲16.4億元人民幣。與此相匹配的是,它有人民幣56440萬元的現金和人民幣12730萬元的應收賬款,這些應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的組合高出30.4億元人民幣。
This deficit isn't so bad because Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd is worth CN¥14.7b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司的這種逆差並不嚴重,因爲其價值爲14.7億元人民幣,因此如果需要的話,可以籌集足夠的資本來支持其資產負債表。但是,很明顯我們肯定需要仔細審查它是否能夠在不削弱股權的情況下管理其債務。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
通過查看公司的淨債務與利息、稅、折舊、攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息費用(利息覆蓋率)可以衡量一個公司的債務負擔與收益能力。因此,我們考慮將債務與有無計算折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對比。
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.76. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 115 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In fact Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 48% in the last twelve months. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司的淨債務/EBITDA比率僅爲0.76。它的EBIT收益率比其利息支出高出115倍。因此,我們對其非常保守地使用債務感到非常放鬆。實際上,亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司的救星是其低債務水平,因爲其EBIT去年大幅下降了48%。一家公司的收益下滑時,有時可能會發現它與貸方的關係變得惡化。當您分析債務時,很明顯資產負債表是需要關注的領域。但是,最終業務的未來盈利能力將決定亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司是否能夠隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份免費報告,其中顯示了分析師的盈利預測。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最後,企業需要有自由現金流來償還債務。會計利潤是不夠的。因此值得檢查的是這些EBIT有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去三年中,亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司燒掉了很多現金。雖然這可能是爲了增長而支出的結果,但它確實使債務風險更大。
Our View
我們的觀點
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd's EBIT growth rate and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.Ltd has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.
亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司的EBIT增長率和將其EBIT轉換爲自由現金流的能力在我們看來確實有些問題。但是其利息保障倍數告訴我們一個完全不同的故事,並表明其具有一定的彈性。總之,綜合上述因素,我們確實認爲亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司的債務對企業構成一定的風險。雖然這些債務可以提高企業的回報率,但現在我們認爲該公司已經擁有足夠的槓桿。(當您分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的領域。但並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中。例如,亞鉀國際(廣州)有限公司存在2個警告信號(和1個不應忽視的信號),我們認爲您應該知道。)
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。