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We Think CIMC Vehicles (Group) (SZSE:301039) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think CIMC Vehicles (Group) (SZSE:301039) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我們認爲中集車輛(集團)(SZSE:301039)能夠控制好自己的債務。
Simply Wall St ·  08/05 21:06

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301039) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

著名基金經理李璐(Charlie Munger擁護)曾說過:“最大的投資風險不在於價格波動,而在於您是否會遭受資本永久性損失。”因此,當您考慮某隻股票的風險時,需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務可能會拖垮一家公司。重要的是,中集車輛(集團)股份有限公司(SZSE:301039)確實有債務。但是,持股人是否會擔心這筆債務?

When Is Debt A Problem?

什麼時候負債才是一個問題?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

債務可以幫助企業,直到企業借不到新資本或依靠自由現金流(Free Cash Flow,FCF)還清債務爲止。最終,如果公司無法履行償付債務的法律義務,則股東可能一文不值。不過,更常見的(但仍然昂貴)情況是,公司必須在股價便宜的情況下稀釋股東來控制債務。儘管如此,最常見的情況是公司合理地管理其債務並以自身利益爲導向時。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先考慮現金和債務水平,兩者結合在一起。

How Much Debt Does CIMC Vehicles (Group) Carry?

中集車輛(集團)負債多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 CIMC Vehicles (Group) had debt of CN¥895.2m, up from CN¥826.5m in one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥6.54b in cash, so it actually has CN¥5.65b net cash.

下面的圖像(單擊可放大)顯示,2024年3月,中集車輛(集團)負債89520萬人民幣,比一年前的82650萬人民幣增加。然而,其資產負債表顯示,它持有654億人民幣現金,因此實際上有565億人民幣的淨現金。

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SZSE:301039 Debt to Equity History August 6th 2024
SZSE:301039股權負債歷史記錄2024年8月6日

How Strong Is CIMC Vehicles (Group)'s Balance Sheet?

中集車輛(集團)的資產負債表有多強?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that CIMC Vehicles (Group) had liabilities of CN¥8.50b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥626.4m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥6.54b and CN¥5.33b worth of receivables due within a year. So it can boast CN¥2.75b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

我們可以從最近的資產負債表看到,中集車輛(集團)有85億人民幣的負債到期,62640萬人民幣的負債超過一年。另一方面,它有654億人民幣的現金和533億人民幣的應收賬款到期。因此,它可以比總負債多出275億人民幣的流動資產。

This excess liquidity suggests that CIMC Vehicles (Group) is taking a careful approach to debt. Given it has easily adequate short term liquidity, we don't think it will have any issues with its lenders. Simply put, the fact that CIMC Vehicles (Group) has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

這個過剩流動性表明,中集車輛(集團)在債務方面採取了謹慎的態度。考慮到它具有充足的短期流動性,我們認爲它不會遇到任何問題。簡而言之,中集車輛(集團)現金比債務多是一個良好的跡象,表明它可以安全地管理其債務。

The good news is that CIMC Vehicles (Group) has increased its EBIT by 4.1% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CIMC Vehicles (Group) can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

好消息是,中集車輛(集團)在過去的12個月裏增加了4.1%的EBIt,這應該緩解任何關於償還債務的擔憂。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解到債務的情況最多。但最終,業務的未來盈利能力將決定中集車輛(集團)是否能夠隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的想法,可以看看這份免費的分析師利潤預測報告。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. CIMC Vehicles (Group) may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. In the last three years, CIMC Vehicles (Group)'s free cash flow amounted to 38% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

最後,公司只能用冰冷的現金而不是會計利潤償還債務。中集車輛(集團)可能在資產負債表上有淨現金,但是看看它如何將其利潤之前的利潤和稅前利潤(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流,還是很有意思的,因爲這將影響其管理債務的需求和能力。在過去的三年中,中集車輛(集團)的自由現金流佔其EBIt的38%,低於我們的預期。當需要償還債務時,這並不是很好。

Summing Up

總之

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case CIMC Vehicles (Group) has CN¥5.65b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And it also grew its EBIT by 4.1% over the last year. So is CIMC Vehicles (Group)'s debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with CIMC Vehicles (Group) .

雖然調查公司的債務水平總是明智的,但在這種情況下,中集車輛(集團)淨現金達到565億元人民幣,資產負債表看起來不錯。它還在過去一年中增加了4.1%的EBIt。那麼,中集車輛(集團)的債務是否存在風險?在我們看來,似乎並沒有。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是開始的顯而易見的地方。但最終,除了資產負債表之外,每個公司都可能存在風險。因此,您應該注意我們發現的1個對中集車輛(集團)的警告信號。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

說到底,有時候更容易集中精力關注根本不需要債務的公司。讀者可以免費訪問零淨債務增長股票列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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