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长江证券:维持理想汽车-W(02015)“买入”评级 单月交付继续突破2万辆

Changjiang Securities: Maintains a "buy" rating for li auto inc (02015) as single-month deliveries continue to exceed 0.02 million units.

Zhitong Finance ·  Aug 5 21:29

Changjiang Securities estimates that li auto inc sales will reach 0.53 million vehicles in 2024 (neutral).

Zhijun Finance and Economics APP learned that Changjiang Securities released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating on li auto inc-W (02015) and that subsequent new models will be launched one after another to further improve the ideal product matrix, enhance the overall sales volume space of li auto inc, and expect the high unit car price to stack scale effects to maintain a good level of profitability. It is estimated that the sales volume of li auto inc will reach 0.53 million vehicles in 2024 (neutral). Li auto inc sold 0.051 million vehicles in July 2024, an increase of 49.4% year-on-year and 6.8% month-on-month. As the pioneer of the household SUV concept, the company's product advantages and brand design are deeply rooted in people's hearts, and the "dual-power strategy" is expected to further expand the advantages of li auto inc.

Changjiang Securities' main points are as follows:

Li auto inc sold 0.051 million vehicles in July 2024, and Li ONE continued to break through 0.02 million deliveries in a single month.

In July 2024, li auto inc sold 51,000 vehicles, an increase of 49.4% year-on-year and 6.8% month-on-month. The cumulative sales volume from January to July was 0.24 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%. The performance of Li ONE was strong, with a single-month delivery of over 0.02 million vehicles in July, helping the company continue to increase its sales volume. Looking at the weekly data, as li auto inc's Li ONE orders increased, li auto inc's weekly sales continued to climb steadily, with sales of 0.008 million vehicles in the 27th week (July 1-7), sales of 0.0113 million vehicles in the 28th week (July 8-14), sales of 0.0109 million vehicles in the 29th week (July 15-21), and sales of 0.0128 million vehicles in the 30th week (July 22-28).

Under the "dual-power strategy", the national supercharging station is rapidly deployed, and intelligent technology improves user experience. 1) Electric power: On March 1st, the ideal 5C supercharging pile was officially put into use. As of July 31, 2024, ideal supercharging stations had been put into use in 701 locations, an increase of 87 from the previous month, with 3,260 charging piles, an increase of 534 from the previous month. Looking ahead, li auto inc plans to invest 6 billion yuan, and plans to build a total of more than 5,000 supercharging stations, with the goal of having built 2,000 supercharging stations by the end of 2024. 2) Intelligence: the li auto inc autonomous driving continues to iterate, OTA6.0 and OTA6.1 version of the vehicle system has been pushed in July, li auto inc L series and li auto inc MEGA achieved major version upgrade. At the earliest by the end of 2024, and at the latest by the first half of 2025, we will provide users with a supervised L3-level autonomous driving experience, and achieve L4-level unsupervised autonomous driving within three years.

1) Electric power: On March 1st, the ideal 5C supercharging pile was officially put into use. As of July 31, 2024, ideal supercharging stations had been put into use in 701 locations, an increase of 87 from the previous month, with 3,260 charging piles, an increase of 534 from the previous month. Looking ahead, li auto inc plans to invest 6 billion yuan, and plans to build a total of more than 5,000 supercharging stations, with the goal of having built 2,000 supercharging stations by the end of 2024. 2) Intelligence: the li auto inc autonomous driving continues to iterate, OTA6.0 and OTA6.1 version of the vehicle system has been pushed in July, li auto inc L series and li auto inc MEGA achieved major version upgrade. At the earliest by the end of 2024, and at the latest by the first half of 2025, we will provide users with a supervised L3-level autonomous driving experience, and achieve L4-level unsupervised autonomous driving within three years.

Li auto inc's subsequent vehicle planning is clear, its direct sales channel layout continues, and its future sales space is broad.

Currently, there are four extended-range SUVs on the platform. On March 1st, the spring launch event officially released the ideal MEGA and 2024 L series models. By 2024, it has formed a product layout of "4 extended-range electric vehicle models + 1 high-voltage pure electric vehicle model", covering a market of more than 0.2 million, more widely meeting consumer demand. At the same time, li auto inc's channel structure continues to be optimized, the number continues to increase. As of the end of July 2024, li auto inc has 487 retail centers nationwide covering 146 cities, a decrease of 10 from the end of the previous month; 411 after-sales repair centers and authorized sheet metal spray centers, covering 220 cities, a decrease of 10 from the end of the previous month. Looking ahead to this year, li auto inc's sales and service network will continue to upgrade, with plans to increase the number of retail centers to 800 by the end of this year, and more than 500 after-sales service centers and authorized sheet metal spray centers.

Risk warning: 1. Global economic recovery is weaker than expected; 2. Industry competition intensifies and weakens corporate profitability.

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