'I Do Not Think The US Economy Is In Recession:' Sahm Rule Creator Refutes Claims Amid Market Turmoil
'I Do Not Think The US Economy Is In Recession:' Sahm Rule Creator Refutes Claims Amid Market Turmoil
Claudia Sahm, the economist who invented the Sahm Rule, has contradicted claims of a recession in the U.S. economy. This comes amid mounting fears of a recession due to recent market instability.
发明Sahm规则的经济学家Claudia Sahm反驳了美国经济衰退的说法。这是在最近市场不稳定性带来的衰退风险不断上升的背景下发生的。
What Happened: Sahm, who is known for developing the Sahm Rule, a key indicator used to predict the onset of a recession, has stated that she does not believe the U.S. economy is in a recession. This assertion follows a period of economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Sahm以开发Sahm Rule而闻名，该规则是预测经济衰退迹象的重要因子之一，她表示不认为美国经济正在衰退。这种说法是在经济不确定性和市场波动期间提出的。
"I do not think the U.S. economy is in recession," Sahm said, in an interview with The Compound. She emphasized that the current economic cycle is unusual, and the traditional indicators may not be accurately reflecting the situation.
“我不认为美国经济处于衰退状态，” Sahm在与Compound的采访中表示。她强调目前的经济周期是不寻常的，传统的指标可能无法准确反映情况。
Most analysts define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Sahm noted that while there was a GDP decline in the first half of 2022, it did not result in a recession.
大多数分析师将连续两个季度实际国内生产总值下降定义为经济衰退。Sahm指出，尽管2022年上半年GDP下降，但并没有导致经济衰退。
These comments come in the wake of recent market turmoil, which has sparked concerns about a potential recession. The turmoil was driven by a slight increase in U.S. unemployment and significant drops in key indices, such as Japan's Nikkei 225 on Monday.
这些评论是在最近市场动荡的背景下发表的，引发了对潜在经济衰退的担忧。动荡是由美国失业率微增和一些关键指数的显著下降，例如日本股市225在周一的情况下引发的。
However, the Japanese stock market significantly recovered on Tuesday following a historic plunge, with other Asia-Pacific markets also showing signs of improvement.
然而，日本股市在经历历史性暴跌后在周二大幅反弹，其他亚太市场也显示出改善迹象。
Why It Matters: Her remarks also follow a recent challenge to the Sahm Rule by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who dismissed the rule during a press conference after the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Powell's stance was in contrast to Sahm's call for immediate action to address inflation.
为什么这很重要：她的言论还是继联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近挑战Sahm Rule之后发表的，鲍威尔在联邦储备委员会政策会议后的新闻发布会上驳斥了该规则。鲍威尔的立场与Sahm要求立即采取行动应对通货膨胀的呼吁形成了鲜明对比。
The debate over whether the U.S. is in a recession has been ongoing, with notable economists weighing in. Recently, Paul Krugman highlighted potential pre-recessionary signals, pointing to the Sahm Rule as a key indicator. Krugman emphasized that the rule is sending a "cautionary message" about the U.S. economy's health.
关于美国是否经历经济衰退的辩论已经持续了一段时间，一些知名经济学家也发表了自己的看法。最近，保罗·克鲁格曼强调了Sahm Rule作为重要因子之一，指出潜在的经济衰退信号。克鲁格曼强调，该规则正在发出对美国经济健康的“警示”。
Meanwhile, U.S. services activity returned to growth in July, potentially easing recession fears. The ISM Services PMI rose to 51.4%, indicating expansion, while the S&P Global Composite PMI also showed positive signs, albeit at a slower pace.
与此同时，美国7月服务业活动出现反弹，可能缓解了经济衰退的担忧。ISM服务业采购经理人指数升至51.4％，表明扩张，而标普全球综合采购经理人指数也显示出积极迹象，尽管速度较慢。
Image via Dall-E
图像来源于 Dall-E
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Kaustubh Bagalkote
这个故事是使用Benzinga Neuro生成的，并由Kaustubh Bagalkote编辑