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开源证券:衰退交易阶段胜率为王 8月看好黄金相对收益领先

Kaiyuan Securities: In the declining trading stage, the winning rate is king. In August, gold is expected to have a leading relative return.

Zhitong Finance ·  Aug 6 03:44

At the beginning of the year, it was believed that the allocation of gold and copper would run through the whole year of 2024, but in the initial stage of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, it may be necessary to choose the direction of recession trading or second inflation trading. Currently, the market is gradually shifting towards recession trading. In July, the new non-farm employment and unemployment rate in the United States were both lower than expected, indicating that the US labor market may stall. The unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months, triggering the "Sam Law" margin in June. The market began to trade economic recession in advance, and the July unemployment rate in the United States was 4.3%, which may enter a second confirmation of recession trading. Although there are exchange rate fluctuations and long positions closing disturbances in the short term, gold exhibits better performance than other major asset classes during the recession period in the early stage of interest rate cuts.

Zhītōng Cáijīng APP learned that Open Source Securities released a research report stating that at the beginning of the year, it was believed that the allocation of gold and copper would run through the whole year of 2024, but in the initial stage of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, it may be necessary to choose the direction of recession trading or second inflation trading. At present, the market is gradually shifting towards recession trading. In July, the weak PMI and employment data ushered in a U.S. recession expectation. The FOMC meeting was biased towards doves, or liquidity may gradually ease. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have raised risk aversion, so it is optimistic to go long gold for relative returns in August.

The major viewpoints of Open source Securities are as follows:

Top-down: Market trading recession expectations, bullish on gold leading relative returns.

Gold: The yen's rate hike and the weakening of the US dollar, together with pricing coefficients and risk hedging, are good for gold. In July, PMI and employment data and other signs welcomed the expectation of a U.S. recession. The tone of the FOMC meeting was biased towards doves, or liquidity may gradually ease. In addition, the tensions in the Middle East have raised risk aversion, so it is optimistic to go long gold for relative returns in August.

Recommended targets: Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), Yintai Gold; related benefiting targets: Zhaojin Mining (01818), China Gold International (02099), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), etc.

Bottom-up: strong expectations under weak reality, copper prices may maintain the volatility of USD 9,000/ton from August to September.

Copper: The main mining companies in 24Q2 have completed production disclosure. Overall, the year-on-year growth rate of production in 18 mainstream copper enterprises globally in the first half of 2024 is 5.0%. The central completion degree of the total output corresponding to the production guidance given by the company at the beginning of the year is 49.2%, which is less than 50%. Overall, the guidance completion degree is not good. Open source securities said that strong expectations under weak reality, bullish on the recovery of copper prices in September, but it is expected that with the continuous landing of loose expectations at home and abroad, as well as the traditional copper demand peak season in September, copper prices from August to September may be boosted by strong expectations under weak reality.

Recommended targets: Zijin Mining Group (601899.SH), CMOC Group Limited (603993.SH); benefiting targets: jchx mining management (603979.SH), Western Mining (601168.SH), Zangge Mining (000408.SZ).

Aluminum: In June 2024, the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached its peak. Demand is gradually entering the low season, and the utilization rate of aluminum rods, aluminum plates, and foils is declining. The overall price of aluminum is under pressure, but the domestic power grid has added an annual investment budget, and the sharp increase in photovoltaic demand in the Middle East has many bright spots on the demand side. In the short term, aluminum prices are oversold seasonally, and the basic fundamentals are expected to improve after the demand recovered. As for alumina, the production pressure of alumina ore in Henan and Shanxi provinces will be greater in the short term. Guinea's early government inspections and the current rainy season will gradually affect the imported ore. Coupled with the basic completion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate, alumina price will run at a high level.

Recommended targets: Chinahongqiao (01378), Yunnan Aluminium (000807.SZ), Shandong Nanshan Aluminium (600219.SH); benefiting targets: Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SH), Tianshan Aluminum Group (002532.SZ).

Tin: On the supply side, disturbances have occurred frequently. The impact of the shutdown of raw ore in the Wa State in Myanmar on the supply side is gradually emerging. The government of the Southern Province of Congo has ordered the suspension of mining activities in the area. Although Indonesia's export volume has been slowly recovering, it is still lower than the same period last year. The Fair Competition Review Regulations implemented on August 1 may have a greater impact on the recycled tin industry; on the demand side, the semiconductor has entered the passive destocking stage, but it still needs downstream active expansion to drive tin consumption.

Recommended targets: Yunnan Tin Co.,ltd (000960.SZ); benefiting targets: Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal (600301.SH).

Risk warnings: global new energy vehicles, energy storage, photovoltaic installations, and semiconductor demand are lower than expected; real estate construction and completion area is lower than expected; progress of each mining project exceeds expectations; geopolitical risks.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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