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Strategist Warns 'There's A Serious Collapse That's Coming' After Monday's Global Market Crash: 'Tons And Tons Of Yen Carry Trades...Have To Be Closed Out'

Strategist Warns 'There's A Serious Collapse That's Coming' After Monday's Global Market Crash: 'Tons And Tons Of Yen Carry Trades...Have To Be Closed Out'

策略師警告道:“在週一的全球市場崩盤後,有一場嚴重的崩潰即將到來:大量的日元套戥交易……必須被平倉。”
Benzinga ·  04:07

Some sanity has returned to the market after Monday's swoon but a report said on Tuesday that investors should brace for more shakeouts in the coming days.

週一的大跌後,市場已經恢復了一些理智,但一份報告稱投資者應該爲未來幾天的更多震盪做好準備。

Protracted Unwinding

拖延性減持

Market participants are worried about an extended sell-off and a contagion effect on other assets, primarily due to fears that the unwinding of yen carry trades will continue, said Reuters in a report. Zhe Shen, head of diversifying strategies at TIFF Investment Management, said, "We expect the sell-off to continue for maybe a few more days as usually these... trades are pretty large," Reuters reported.

路透社在一份報告中稱,市場參與者擔心出現長期的拋售,以及其他資產受到連鎖反應的影響,主要原因是對負債日元交易解除的擔憂。TIFF投資管理公司多元化策略負責人沈哲表示:“我們預計拋售可能還會繼續數天,因爲這些交易通常規模相當大。”路透社報道說。

Shen reportedly thinks people are biding their time to offload more of their financial assets. "People said 'wait, we're losing too much money from unwinding. Let's just hold and we'll unwind some more tomorrow.'"

據報道,沈哲認爲人們正在等待時機去卸載更多的金融資產。他說:“人們說,等等,我們在解除負債交易時損失太多了。讓我們堅持等到明天再解除負債。”

Complete unwinding of the yen carry traders will take days and this will potentially extend the market rout, the market strategist said.

市場策略師表示,完全解除負債日元交易需要數天時間,這可能會進一步帶來市場動盪。

Ulf Lindahl, CEO of institutional investors advisory firm Currency Research Associates, shared the sentiment. "There's tons and tons of yen carry trades that still have to be closed out," he told Reuters.

機構投資者諮詢公司貨幣研究協會的CEO Ulf Lindahl也表達了類似的觀點。他告訴路透社:“還有大量的負債日元交易需要平倉。”

Hedge fund PivotalPath said the most affected by the unwinding are global macroquantitative and managed futures, as they have short exposure to the Japanese currency, the report said. The firm estimates that the yen's strength in August may have inflicted a l1.5%-2.5% loss for those funds' indexes, it added.

對於那些開空日元的全球宏觀量化和交易期貨者來說,解除負債日元交易將是最受影響的,據報道,PivotalPath對沖基金估計,日元8月份的走強可能使這些基金的指數損失了1.5%-2.5%。

Not Regular Correction

該報告還表示,一些資金管理人員已經在過去幾天減少了風險,對沖基金在股票市場開始下跌時兩週前開始解除負債。摩根士丹利在7月底表示,如果市場進一步惡化,宏觀對沖基金可能在未來幾周賣出110億美元。

The report also said some money managers have already been reducing risk in the past few days and hedge funds started unwinding two weeks back when the equity market began falling. In late July, Morgan Stanley said macro hedge funds could sell $110 billion in the coming weeks if markets further deteriorated.

該報告還表示,一些資金管理人員已經在過去幾天減少了風險,對沖基金在股票市場開始下跌時兩週前開始解除負債。摩根士丹利在7月底表示,如果市場進一步惡化,宏觀對沖基金可能在未來幾周賣出110億美元。

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, however, told Reuters that the actual size of the positions and how much hedged may be tough to gauge. There could be derivates involved, prompting a "pretty sizeable reaction."

Schwab的首席固收策略師Kathy Jones告訴路透社,這些頭寸的實際規模以及對沖多少可能很難估計。而且可能涉及到衍生品,引發了“相當大的反應”。

The Nasdaq 100's fall below its record high of 18,647.45 on July 10 is seen as a challenge for a " quick and sustainable bounce back."

納斯達克100指數跌破7月10日的紀錄高點18,647.45後備受考驗,需要“快速和持續的反彈。”

Lindahl reportedly said most haven't unwound anything, thinking it is a regular correction. "This is a serious thing, it's not just the regular correction. You don't have gap openings for 4% or 5% in major indexes, and then they recover. There's a serious collapse that's coming," he said.

據報道,Lindahl稱,大多數人認爲這只是一次普通的修正,沒有解除任何股票。他說:“這是一件嚴重的事情,這不僅僅是普通的修正。主要指數不會出現4%或5%的差距,然後恢復正常。它會出現嚴重崩盤的。”

The Nasdaq 100 on Monday opened at 17,444.40, down 5.40% from the previous session's closing price. Although the index was deep in the red throughout the session, it cut its losses, rising as high as 18,169.49, before settling off this level at $17,895.15.

納斯達克100指數週一開盤時爲17,444.40點,比上一交易日收盤價下跌5.40%。儘管該指數在整個交易日都處於下跌狀態,但在漲到18,169.49點後,最終在17,895.15點附近收盤。

Also, the Japanese market, which kickstarted the global sell-off has rebounded and ended Tuesday's session up 10.23% at 34,675.46.

另外,日本市場在引發全球拋售後反彈,週二收盤上漲10.23%,收於34,675.46點。

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 Index, ended Monday's session down 2.91% at $517.38, according to Benzinga Pro data.

SPDR標普500 ETF信託基金(NYSE:SPY),一隻跟蹤標普500指數的交易所交易基金,週一的收盤價爲517.38美元,跌幅爲2.91%,據Benzinga Pro數據顯示。

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