A week ago, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$93b arriving 3.8% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$2.14, 5.2% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Exxon Mobil's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$355.0b in 2024. This reflects a modest 2.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 15% to US$8.88. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$356.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.05 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$133. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Exxon Mobil at US$156 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$110. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Exxon Mobil's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Exxon Mobil is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Exxon Mobil. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Exxon Mobil going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Exxon Mobil that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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