If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Baoji Titanium Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600456) shareholders. Sadly for them, the share price is down 53% in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 25%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 10% in the last three months. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 13% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

On a more encouraging note the company has added CN¥411m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Although the share price is down over three years, Baoji Titanium Industry actually managed to grow EPS by 7.2% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

With a rather small yield of just 1.4% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 13% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating Baoji Titanium Industry further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 20% in the twelve months, Baoji Titanium Industry shareholders did even worse, losing 24% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Baoji Titanium Industry has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com