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後場に注目すべき3つのポイント~内田日銀副総裁の発言で一気に切り返す展開に

Three things to watch for in the afternoon: a swift turn of events with Deputy Governor Uchida's statement.

Fisco Japan ·  Aug 6 23:22

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in late-day trading on the 7th.

・The Nikkei Average continued to rise drastically, and the Bank of Japan Vice Governor Uchida's remarks turned back and forth all at once

・The dollar and yen are firmly rising due to the rise in Japanese stocks

・SoftBank G <9984> is the top contributor to price increases, and Tokyo Electron <8035> is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average continued to rise drastically, and the Bank of Japan Vice Governor Uchida's remarks turned back and forth all at once

The Nikkei Average continued to rise drastically. The forward transaction was closed at 35464.61 yen (estimated volume 1.5 billion 90 million shares), which was 789.15 yen higher (+ 2.28%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market rebounded on the 6th. The Dow average closed at 38997.66 dollars with a 294.39 dollar increase (+ 0.76%), the Nasdaq closed at 16366.86 with a 166.78 point increase (+ 1.03%), and the S&P 500 at 5240.03 with a 53.70 point increase (+ 1.04%). It was bought out of a sense of affordability due to the view that yesterday's decline had gone too far, and after being close, it rose. Anxiety about a serious recession was mitigated and investor sentiment improved, and buybacks took precedence throughout the day due to favorable financial results from some major companies such as Caterpillar. High-tech was also bought and the range of increases expanded. Stalling towards the end of the game also ended in the positive zone.

While US stocks are regaining their composure, the volatile Tokyo market began trading with a selling advantage. After the Nikkei Average was donated, the decline widened to 33739.46 yen, but bank stocks etc. were bought back in the spot market, and TOPIX switched back and forth. After 10:00, Uchida Shinichi Bank Vice President stated at the financial and economic meeting held in Hakodate that “interest rates will not be raised in an unstable situation” and “for the time being, it is necessary to firmly continue monetary easing at the current level at the current level,” and the exchange rate temporarily depreciated to about 3 yen and the depreciation of the dollar progressed to about 3 yen. At the timing when the yen depreciated, the Nikkei Average changed all at once, and the temporary increase was over 1000 yen.

Among stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, DISCO <6146> has risen drastically, and semiconductor stocks such as Socionext <6526> have risen. Also, in addition to Nichirei <2871> being bought using financial results, bank stocks such as Sumitomo Mitsui <8316>, Resona HD <8308>, Mitsubishi UFJ <8306>, Mizuho <8411>, and Fukuoka <8354> generally rose. In addition, Canon <7751>, Japan Steel Works <5631>, IHI <7013>, and Kawasaki Shigeru <7012> were bought.

Meanwhile, Daikin (6367) and Ricoh (7752) fell drastically due to operating profit for the first quarter falling below market consensus, and Mitsui Chemicals (4183) was sold in recognition of concerns about the effects of plant troubles despite strong performance in the first quarter. Additionally, Furukawa Electric <5801>, AGC <5201>, Ajinomoto <2802>, and Kashima Kensetsu <1812> declined.

While all industries were bought, increases in banking, wholesale, insurance, securities/commodity futures trading, and machinery were conspicuous.

The exchange rate is moving in the middle of the 146 yen range per dollar. The yen's appreciation came to a standstill due to Bank of Japan Vice Governor Uchida's remarks. Since 7/30, the dollar and yen have continued to be in a volatile situation where they have moved over 2 yen a day, and no settlement has been seen yet. Since Bank of Japan Vice Governor Uchida's press conference is also scheduled from 14:30 today, there is a good possibility that the yen will depreciate further or that the yen will depreciate even further. Since the market has become easier to move due to various speculations, I would like to be wary of fluctuations in the Tokyo Market in the back market as well.

■The dollar and yen are firmly rising due to the rise in Japanese stocks

There was a steady price movement of the dollar and yen in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 7th, and the price was rounded up from 144 yen 31 yen to 147 yen 49 yen. When the Nikkei Stock Average turned positive, risk-averse yen buying retreated, and major currencies were strongly included against yen. The yield on 10-year US bonds remained high, and they were swayed to buy dollars.

The trading range up to this point is 144 yen 31 yen to 147 yen 49 sen for the dollar and yen, from 157 yen 73 yen to 160 yen 92 sen for the euro and yen, and 1.0919 dollars to 1.0931 dollars for the euro dollar.

■Backstage check stocks

・13 brands, such as PostPrime <198A> and YS FOOD <3358>, etc., have a high stop

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・SoftBank G <9984> is the top contributor to price increases, and Tokyo Electron <8035> is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・NZ・April-6 unemployment rate: 4.6% (forecast: 4.7%, January-March period: 4.3%)

・Increase or decrease in the number of employees employed in the NZ/April-6 fiscal year: +0.4% compared to the previous fiscal year (forecast: -0.2%, January-March period: -0.2%)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida

“The economy will recover moderately, and the outlook will continue to exceed the potential growth rate.”

“If the economy and prices unfold in line with the outlook, adjustments to the degree of mitigation are necessary.”

<Domestic>

・ 14:00 June Business Trend Index and Preliminary Report Values (Forecast: 108.8, May: 111.2)

<Overseas>

・Time undecided ・July exports (year-on-year forecast: +9.5%, June: +8.6%)

・Time undecided ・July imports (year-on-year forecast: +3.2%, June: -2.3%)

・ 15:00 Germany/June industrial production (month-on-month forecast: +1.0%, June: -2.5%)

・ 15:00 Germany/June trade balance (forecast: +21.5 billion euros, May: +24.9 billion euros)

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