此前，由于日央行上周三意外加息，日元套利交易大规模清盘，推动日元反弹、日股下跌。可以说，Under strong selling pressure, the Bank of Japan has turned dovish again, and arbitrage trading has resumed, and the yen may return to the situation of being heavily shorted. Some commentaries predict that malignant inflation will return as the Bank of Japan continues to maintain a cautious stance, and the yen exchange rate will hit new lows in the "near future".
After the Japanese stock market collapsed, the global market followed suit, and the Bank of Japan surrendered by adopting a dovish stance.
On Monday, the Japanese stock market experienced a historic crash, triggering a global stock market collapse. In order to stabilize the market, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, came forward today with a dovish statement, stating that they would not raise interest rates when the market is unstable.
Due to the Bank of Japan's unexpected interest rate hike last Wednesday, massive inventory liquidation occurred in yen carry trade, which pushed up the yen and caused the Japanese stock market to decline. It can be said that the global stock market suffered a 'Black Monday,' and the Bank of Japan was arguably the 'main culprit.'
During Naito's speech, the yen fell again and fell below the 147 mark, with the USD/JPY rising by 2% within the day. $USDJPY.FX$
responded with a sharp rise, the nikkei 225 index rose more than 3% at one point, and finally closed up 1.19%. $.NKY.US$
Under intense selling pressure, the Bank of Japan had no choice but to surrender.
According to earlier reports by the media, Shinichi Uchida is a senior policy designer who is partial to dovish policies and has been involved in planning the Bank of Japan's massive easing monetary policy for more than a decade. His dovish remarks today indirectly acknowledged that the Bank's interest rate hike last week was a 'disastrous' policy mistake.
After the Bank of Japan announced the interest rate hike, yen carry trade began to reverse and global financial markets began to plummet. Many investors even predicted that the yen would soon rise to the level of 130. Under the impact of panic selling, the Bank of Japan had no choice but to abandon its previous policy stance.
UBS trader Alex Lim stated in a report:
'The last thing the Bank of Japan wants is to be seen as the initiator of this severe market selloff, and in fact it was caused by its interest rate hike on July 31st.'
'Now the Bank of Japan is obviously under pressure to respond to the market's major decline and may have to prove the rationality of its hawkish policy decisions.'
The French Agricultural Credit Bank commented:
'Uchida's comments indicate that the Bank of Japan may soon (or permanently) be cautious about raising interest rates again, which will put pressure on the yen.'
With the Bank of Japan turning back to dovish policy, carry trade will begin again, and the yen may return to the situation of being heavily sold short.
Some media comment that the Bank of Japan abandoned the attempt to further tighten monetary policy due to a 'moderate bear market' in the stock market, and it is expected that with the Bank's continued cautious stance, malignant inflation will return, and the yen exchange rate will hit new lows in the 'near future.'
Editor/Somer
