中金认为，在地方债、城投债、PPP融资能力明显削减的情况下，央企订单获取能力明显优于地方性建工、城投企业，市场份额持续扩张；同时，央企整体经营质量亦提升优化，当前央企全面转向国资委新的“一利五率”1考核标准，配合“国九条”和“提质增效重回报行动”等，提示可适当弱化对央国企收入规模增长的预期，转而关注盈利质量和分红能力的改善。此外，随着央企进一步探索新质生产力并扩增规模，新的成长动能(如绿色建筑、海外业务、矿业)有望被充分挖掘并给予估值。推荐中国建筑(601668.SH)、中国中冶(601618.SH)等央企。With the acceleration of fiscal expenditure progress in the second half of the year, the support of special bonds, specific bonds, and other sources, infrastructure growth rate may moderately increase compared to 2Q24, and the strong performance of the manufacturing industry in 1H24 is expected to continue into the second half of the year, continuing to support stable economic growth. On the product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
According to the Zhongjin Securities' report, in recent years, the burden of interest and principal payments on local government and urban investment bonds has increased, but the central government's leverage has partially offset this. Currently, China's macro economy is facing a phase of insufficient demand and structural weakness in monetary supply. It may be at the starting point of "double balance." With the acceleration of fiscal expenditure progress in the second half of the year and the support of special bonds, specific bonds, and other sources, infrastructure growth rate may moderately increase compared to 2Q24, and the strong performance of the manufacturing industry in 1H24 is expected to continue into the second half of the year, continuing to support stable economic growth. Looking ahead, it is recommended to grasp three investment trends in the construction industry.
The first trend: central enterprises are still a relatively stable choice.
According to Zhongjin Securities, under the condition that the financing capabilities of local government debts, urban investment bonds and PPP have been significantly reduced, the order acquisition capabilities of central enterprises are significantly superior to localized construction and urban construction enterprises, and market share continues to expand. At the same time, the overall operating quality of central enterprises is also improved and optimized. Currently, central enterprises have fully turned to the new "one interest and five rate"1 appraisal standard of SASAC, with "nine policies" and "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement return act." It is suggested to moderately weaken the expectation of revenue scale growth of central state-owned enterprises and focus on improving the quality of profits and dividend-paying abilities. In addition, with the further exploration and expansion of new quality productivity by central enterprises, new growth momentum (such as green buildings, overseas business, and mining) is expected to be fully tapped and valued. China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668.SH) and Metallurgical Corporation of China (601618.SH) are recommended.
The second trend: investments in the industrial and energy sectors have performed well, and related professional engineering enterprises are expected to benefit.
Zhongjin Securities believes that in the first half of the year, the overall fixed asset investment is slightly under pressure, and manufacturing investment is still the largest contributing sector to volume and growth in the fixed investment. It involves related factories and engineering enterprises, but the current competition in some industrial sectors is fierce, and profits are relatively under pressure, which may lead to a slowdown in subsequent manufacturing investment in these fields. At the same time, electric, thermal and gas power investment in infrastructure investment continues to maintain a growth rate of over 20%, becoming a cornerstone of the growth of infrastructure investment. In stock selection, it is recommended to focus on mining, manufacturing, and electric power-related sectors with good supply patterns and profitability, and pay attention to anhui Honglu Steel Construction (002541.SZ), Hongxin Jianfa (09930), Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology (603300.SH).
The third trend: Professional engineering enterprises that have deep roots overseas and have a strong moat are recommended.
Zhongjin Securities believes that some overseas engineering projects have emerged after the epidemic, and the demand for infrastructure and urbanization construction in many developing countries is long-term and objective. Professional engineering enterprises with overseas genes and capabilities are expected to stand out, obtain more orders and higher gross margins. Overseas construction and infrastructure projects may face stronger market competition, while professional industrial engineering orders may have higher gross margins and stronger payment certainty, which is more bullish for enterprises that have been deeply rooted overseas for many years, have the ability to carry out on-site construction, and have a deep moat in the professional engineering field. Sinoma International Engineering (600970.SH) is recommended.
Risk factors: Lower-than-expected demand recovery may lead to a significant pressure on corporate orders.
