Qtone Education Group (Guangdong) Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300359) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 31% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 14% over that time.

After such a large jump in price, Qtone Education Group (Guangdong)Ltd may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 5.5x, since almost half of all companies in the Software in China have P/S ratios under 4.4x and even P/S lower than 2x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

What Does Qtone Education Group (Guangdong)Ltd's Recent Performance Look Like?

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Qtone Education Group (Guangdong)Ltd's revenue has been unimpressive. Perhaps the market believes that revenue growth will improve markedly over current levels, inflating the P/S ratio. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

How Is Qtone Education Group (Guangdong)Ltd's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Qtone Education Group (Guangdong)Ltd's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any revenue growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 15% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Qtone Education Group (Guangdong)Ltd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

The large bounce in Qtone Education Group (Guangdong)Ltd's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Qtone Education Group (Guangdong)Ltd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Qtone Education Group (Guangdong)Ltd has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com