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Is Now The Time To Put Progressive (NYSE:PGR) On Your Watchlist?

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 8 08:56

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks' without any revenue, let alone profit. Unfortunately, these high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.

Despite being in the age of tech-stock blue-sky investing, many investors still adopt a more traditional strategy; buying shares in profitable companies like Progressive (NYSE:PGR). Now this is not to say that the company presents the best investment opportunity around, but profitability is a key component to success in business.

How Fast Is Progressive Growing?

Generally, companies experiencing growth in earnings per share (EPS) should see similar trends in share price. Therefore, there are plenty of investors who like to buy shares in companies that are growing EPS. Progressive managed to grow EPS by 7.9% per year, over three years. That might not be particularly high growth, but it does show that per-share earnings are moving steadily in the right direction.

Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. The good news is that Progressive is growing revenues, and EBIT margins improved by 8.9 percentage points to 13%, over the last year. Both of which are great metrics to check off for potential growth.

The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

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NYSE:PGR Earnings and Revenue History August 8th 2024

The trick, as an investor, is to find companies that are going to perform well in the future, not just in the past. While crystal balls don't exist, you can check our visualization of consensus analyst forecasts for Progressive's future EPS 100% free.

Are Progressive Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

We would not expect to see insiders owning a large percentage of a US$125b company like Progressive. But we do take comfort from the fact that they are investors in the company. Notably, they have an enviable stake in the company, worth US$384m. This comes in at 0.3% of shares in the company, which is a fair amount of a business of this size. This should still be a great incentive for management to maximise shareholder value.

Should You Add Progressive To Your Watchlist?

As previously touched on, Progressive is a growing business, which is encouraging. For those who are looking for a little more than this, the high level of insider ownership enhances our enthusiasm for this growth. That combination is very appealing. So yes, we do think the stock is worth keeping an eye on. We should say that we've discovered 1 warning sign for Progressive that you should be aware of before investing here.

While opting for stocks without growing earnings and absent insider buying can yield results, for investors valuing these key metrics, here is a carefully selected list of companies in the US with promising growth potential and insider confidence.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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