It's been a mediocre week for Airgain, Inc. (NASDAQ:AIRG) shareholders, with the stock dropping 15% to US$6.39 in the week since its latest quarterly results. The results overall were pretty much dead in line with analyst forecasts; revenues were US$15m and statutory losses were US$0.23 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Airgain's three analysts is for revenues of US$62.6m in 2024. This would reflect a solid 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 24% to US$0.83. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$63.0m and losses of US$0.68 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Airgain even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a massive increase in per-share losses.

Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 6.7% to 7.5, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Airgain's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 39% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.3% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Airgain to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Airgain going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Airgain (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.