Earnings Miss: TopBuild Corp. Missed EPS By 13% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Earnings Miss: TopBuild Corp. Missed EPS By 13% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:BLD) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$1.4b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 13%, coming in at just US$4.78 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on TopBuild after the latest results.
TopBuild 公司(紐交所:BLD)剛剛發佈了最新一季度報告,情況並不樂觀。總體來說,這是一個不太理想的結果 - 雖然營業收入略低於分析師預估的14億美元,但法定收益卻只有4.78美元/股,比預估低了13%。分析師通常會在每一次資產報告後更新他們的預測,從中我們可以判斷出他們對公司的看法是否發生了變化或是否存在任何需要注意的新問題。讀者將很高興地知道,我們已經聚合了最新的法定預測,以了解在最新的業績發佈後分析師是否對 TopBuild 改變了看法。
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After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering TopBuild are now predicting revenues of US$5.43b in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 3.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 9.4% to US$21.34. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$21.31 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
在最新的業績發佈後,覆蓋 TopBuild 的十一個分析師現在預測2024年的營業收入將達到54.3億美元。如果如期實現,這將反映出收入與過去12個月相比有3.4%的增長。預期每股收益將累計增長9.4%,達到21.34美元。然而,在最新的業績發佈前,分析師們曾預計 TopBuild 在2024年的營業收入爲55.1億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲21.31美元。所以,儘管分析師更新了他們的預測,但在最新業績發佈後,對於業務的期望並未發生重大變化。
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$454. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values TopBuild at US$525 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$395. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
毫不意外,共識價格目標基本上保持不變,爲454美元。然而,還有另一種思考價格目標的方式,那就是查看分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲廣泛的估計範圍可能表明對企業的可能結果存在不同的看法。目前,最看好的分析師將 TopBuild 的價值定在每股525美元,而最看淡的價值爲每股395美元。由於估值範圍較窄,分析師們顯然對企業價值持有類似的觀點。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that TopBuild's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 6.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Compare this to the 86 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while TopBuild's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
現在看大局,我們可以從多方面來理解這些預測,並將其與過去的業績和行業增長預估進行比較。很明顯, TopBuild 的營業收入增長預計將大幅放緩,到2024年末,預計年均增長率僅爲6.9%。這相比過去五年的18%歷史增長率有了巨大的變化。而在該行業中,還有86家其他受分析師關注的公司,預計他們的年均營收增長率爲5.8%。因此,儘管 TopBuild 的營業收入增長預計將放緩,但預計將與該行業的增長相當。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最重要的是,分析師再次確認業務績效符合他們之前的每股收益估計值。他們還確認了營收預測,預計該公司將以與整個行業大致相同的速度增長。共識價格目標沒有實質性變化,這表明業務內在價值沒有隨着最新估算髮生任何重大變化。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TopBuild going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
接着這個思路,我認爲企業的長期前景比明年的盈利更具參考價值。在 Simply Wall St,我們對覆蓋 TopBuild 的分析師進行了全面的2026年預測,你可以在這裏免費查看。
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for TopBuild you should be aware of.
然而,你也應該考慮風險。例如,我們已經發現了 TopBuild 的一個警告信號,你應該了解一下。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。